Brexit Boom! Post-Referendum Consumer Spending Surge

SPENDING

Despite claims from Remainers that a Brexit vote would see consumer confidence plummet, new figures out today show spending has surged since the referendum. Just a few weeks ago Remain doom-mongers were writing about a “dent in confidence”, how people were “gloomy” about their finances and wanted to “rein in spending” because of the Leave vote. Yet analysis from Visa and Markit shows a “sharp” rise in expenditure of 1.6% year-on-year in July, up from 0.9 percent in June. There’s been an 8.9% rise in spending at restaurants, a 5.2% rise in recreational spending and a 3.9% rise in spending on clothing. In the first week after the referendum consumer spending rose 2.14%. Rather than rein in spending, Brexit Britain is booming…

Dave’s New Landlord Blasted Brussels and Talked Up Brexit

cameron

David Cameron’s new landlord reckons Britain will be “richer” and “more plentiful” outside the EU. Dave and the family have moved into a three-storey end-of-terrace house in Chelsea, which would usually rent for £11,000-a-month. Its owner Dominic Johnson is an old friend and is letting the Camerons stay there for free. Johnson runs an asset management firm and used to be a full-blown Europhile, that was until last year when he said he had “fallen out of love” with the EU:

“I was pretty clear that I would vote to stay in – regardless of the outcome of any negotiation. But then I started to look more closely at the facts… If the UK left the EU (assuming trade treaties and other issues can still be negotiated), I do not believe that it would make any difference at all to the ease – or difficulty – of trade for our industry in the EU. Indeed, the fact that London has to suffer under the weight of such EU regulation is currently a deterrent for international boutiques locating here. If we leave, we may even get richer and our human capital more plentiful.”

Johnson then set Cameron four tough targets for reform and said if they were not achieved he would not be able to “stay committed” to the EU. Is Dave’s new landlord a Brexiteer? He can’t escape them these days…

Cameron Rewards Remain Failures

The honours list is out – confirmation that Stronger In boss Will Straw will have his failure rewarded with a CBE. Arise Sir Craig Oliver, No.10 comms chief who went to spin for BSE. There will also be a CBE for Dan Korski, the Downing Street aide best known for orchestrating pro-Remain support during the campaign. Charlotte Vere, chief of the failed Conservatives In, is rewarded with a peerage. The Remain losers get gongs, Matthew Elliott, boss of Vote Leave and the No2AV campaign, got victories…

Plenty of honours for Dave’s mates. George Osborne becomes a Companion of Honour. There are CBEs for his official spokesman Helen Bower, SpAd Ramsay Jones and spinner Graeme Wilson. OBEs for SpAds Julian Glover, Neil O’Brien, Lena Pietsch, Thea Rogers, Alan Sendorek, Isabel Spearman, Sheridan Westlake, Eleanor Wolfson and Cameron’s constituency agent Natasha Whitmill. MBEs for SpAds Adam Atashzai, Jessica Cunniffe, Giles Kenningham, Richard Parr, Caroline Preston, Nick Seddon, Kate Shouesmith, Laura Trott and Martha Varney. There are peerages for aides Ed Llewellyn, Liz Sugg, Camilla Cavendish, Gabby Bertin and Jonathan Caine. Many deserved, some less so…

See the full list of honours here and peerages here.

Bank of England Rubbish Osborne’s Brexit Fibs

osborne balls

George Osborne’s claims that voting to Leave would cause interest rates to rise and a year-long recession have been demolished by the Bank of England. Osborne’s Treasury forecast of the two years following a Leave vote predicted GDP at between -3% and -6%. Today’s Bank of England numbers forecast GDP unchanged at 2% for 2016, dropping to 0.8% in 2017 and rising again to 1.8% in 2018. They have cut interest rates and said there will be no recession.

Osborne also claimed unemployment would rise 2.4 points to 7.3%. The Bank of England forecasts an unemployment rate of 5.6%. This is what the Treasury was threatening:

osbo

The Bank of England now say this was all nonsense. Final proof the Remain campaign were fibbing all the way to the ballot box…

Voters Don’t Regret Brexit

POLL

Given the coverage from parts of the Remainstream media over the last few weeks, they’d have you believe millions of Leave voters were having buyers’ remorse and now regret voting for Brexit. A new poll out from YouGov quashes that theory – the Leave vote is still ahead. Someone should tell Oily Smith and David Lammy they would lose a second referendum…

London Lands 30 Billion Rupee “Masala Bond”

hdfc uk india

India’s first offshore rupee-denominated bond was listed on the London Stock Exchange today. The investment – known as a “masala” bond – was issued by India’s largest bank HDFC, whose chairman Deepak Parekh praised London’s “wide range of financial instruments” and “unshakable trust from international investors.”

“While we did explore other markets for listing, the responsiveness and efficiency with which the officials at the UKLA and London Stock Exchange responded to our urgent requirements was remarkable.”

HDFC’s decision to place the 30 billion rupee / £341 million bond on the British market was preceded by the Chinese government earlier this year, who issued the first ever Yuan bond outside of China (worth £300 million) in May. Last week, the German stock exchange (Deutsche Börse) voted overwhelmingly in favour of merging with the London Stock Exchange, hoping to make it the world’s largest market. Both India and China are listed within the top 20 GDP growth rates in the world, and form part of Guido’s post-Brexit trade map. It cements London’s place as the financial capital of the world – Paris and Frankfurt didn’t have a hope. Even the arch-Remainiacs over at Bloomberg are grudgingly admitting it’s good post-Brexit news…

Most Shared Story of the Week

27-express

Guido’s most shared story last week on social media was Friday’s research-based compilation of all the countries where officials have indicated an interest in doing a trade deal with post-Brexit Britain. As well as the thousands of shares on Facebook and Twitter it was shared with readers of the Daily Express on their Saturday front page, who credited the story to “experts”.

Proving once again that you’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

Watchdog Slams IMF’s Complacency, Lack of Transparency and EU Groupthink

lagarde-trial

A damning report by IMF watchdog the Independent Evaluation Office has slammed a “culture of complacency” in Christine Lagarde’s organisation. Focusing on the IMF’s response to the Eurozone crisis, the report claims that the Fund was riven with “issues of accountability and transparency”, claiming Lagarde and senior management established “small, ad hoc staff task forces” to plan for the possibility of bailouts, rather than holding executive board meetings. The report slams the “lack of board involvement”, with management failing to discuss – sometimes despite direct requests – issues around the unfolding crisis. Preparations made by management lacked “analytical depth, rigor, or specificity”. Most damning of all, however, is the IMF’s “groupthink” and unquestioning links to European policy – particularly their irrational fervour for the Euro. The report concludes:

“At the euro area level, IMF staff’s position was often too close to the official line of European officials, and the IMF lost effectiveness as an independent assessor.”

So much for that independent report, eh Remainers?

27 Countries Seeking UK Trade Deals

BREXIT TRADE MAP

The above map shows all the countries in which government officials or prominent business figures have declared a desire to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Britain. Out of the 10 largest economies in the world, just two (France and Italy) have not yet made moves for a deal. Every continent on earth is represented, with 27 countries already signalling their intentions:

Australia
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Ecuador
Germany
Ghana
Iceland
India
Ireland
Japan
Kenya
Korea (Republic of)
Mexico
New Zealand
Pakistan
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Switzerland
United States
Uruguay
Venezuela

The total GDP of all of these countries is nearly $50 trillion dollars – 67% of global GDP. In comparison, the EU’s GDP of $16 trillion equates to just 22%. Britain is open for business and Guido will be updating this map over the coming weeks and months. Over to you, Dr Fox…

Juncker Appoints Hardline Britain Basher as EU Brexit Negotiator

BARNIER

Who is Michel Barnier, the man appointed by Juncker to be the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator? An ultra-interventionist, dirigiste Frenchman with a history of bashing Britain and getting into fights with UK governments. This FT article from 2011 gives a taste of what he is like:

“Sir Mervyn King is not known as a man given to shouting. But during a meeting this summer in the genteel surroundings of London’s Threadneedle Street, the Bank of England governor let fly. The visitor sitting across from him was threatening to rein in the governor’s new powers to set capital rules for Britain’s banks. Sir Mervyn was having none of it. As his voice rose, his interpreter grew increasingly startled – particularly as the Frenchman refused to back down. An hour later, Sir Mervyn’s hands were still shaking when he sat down for lunch with George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer.”

When barmy Barnier was appointed to his role as EU financial services chief, Nicolas Sarkozy boasted that France had achieved a victory over “Anglo-Saxon capitalism”. In 2009 Gordon Brown flipped out when Sarkozy said Barnier’s appointment meant Britain were “big losers”. In 2010 the Telegraph described him as “the most dangerous man in Europe”. In 2013 Barnier told Britain to accept punitive regulation of the City or leave the EU. This appointment is a an act of war…

Everybody’s Investing in Brexit Britain

dbg uk gsk city airport

Three huge businesses have announced major UK investments in the space of 24 hours – in some cases contrary to what their officials claimed prior to the referendum vote. GlaxoSmithKline has announced £275 million of fresh investment, London’s City Airport is getting a £344 million expansion, and Deutsche Börse’s shareholders overwhelmingly approved its merger with the London Stock Exchange. A vote endorsing London as the enduring financial capital of the world post-Brexit…

All three firms contributed to Project Fear. GSK CEO Sir Andrew Witty signed a letter to the Observer in May that claimed “Leaving the EU would bring added complexity and uncertainty, which is bad for business and research.” London City Airport’s CEO Declan Collier claimed Brexit would  “undermine the free flow of trade and travel.” The Financial Times warned of “advisers familiar” with the Stock Exchange merger claiming the day after the vote “The deal is dead. The German’s won’t allow it.” Willkommen in Großbritannien!

Developing Countries Turning to Britain Post Brexit

kenya uk

The East African Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU has for the last 10 years held countries like Tanzania and Kenya ransom, punishing these largely agricultural economies for failing to sign up to new agreements. Last week, Kenya feared another hit to its blooming flower industry after rumours of Tanzania getting cold-feet about signing a collective trade agreement in October.

At the same time the EU deal was thrown into question last week, Britain took the stage with China to announce stronger trade cooperation with Kenya. 56% of black tea and 27% of fresh produce comes to the UK from Kenya, with flowers being a particular boon, so any deal would be welcome. For less developed countries being drawn into the EU deal, the “Everything but Arms” initiative already means they can export produce into Europe duty-free and quota-free. Larger economies like Kenya can always sign their own, separate agreement with the EU if they want, not tied down to the wishes and demands of their neighbours, or they can continue with the EPA. As Kenyan professionals have already pointed out, there is another choice…

South American Trade Bloc Seek UK Deal

mercosur brazil

Major South American economies including Brazil are eager to get on with UK trade deal negotiations “as soon as the new minister of external affairs takes office”. Mercosur, a trading bloc that includes Argentina and Brazil, the 9th largest economy in the world, is keen “to open right away a negotiation”, according to Brazil’s foreign minister, Jose Serra. Praising Britain’s new free-trading direction, Serra says Britain “has a more open economy and has a very important position in relation to investment in Brazil”. With the Real set to devalue later this year, Brazil’s desire to trade with Britain could even mean cheaper food, as beef exporters look set to swoop into newly deregulated agricultural import markets. So that’s the US, China, India, South America, Pakistan and South Korea who have signalled they want trade deals so far…

Matthew Elliott on Why Leave Won

Referendum-winning Vote Leave boss Matthew Elliott recounts how the campaign was won on today’s Daily Politics“At 10pm on the 23 of June, the consensus was that Vote Leave had lost. A contact of mine at Number 10 texted me to say, ‘You’re toast'”. And the rest is history…

Top Economist: Vote Owen Smith to Block Brexit

ANATOLE KALTESKY

Anatole Kaletsky, one of the first economists to point out the severity of the Northern Rock crisis, has been emailing round telling people to sign up to Labour to get Owen Smith elected so he can block Brexit. Smith’s support for a second EU referendum has inspired the Europhile economist to send this email to friends:

“If a Second Referendum becomes official policy of the Labour Party, SNP, Liberals, Greens etc will join in and this demand will prove very hard to resist for the Tories, even if Theresa May survives as Prime Minister (which I think is no more than a 50% probability).”

He has also been tweeting his 10,000 followers the same:

Alternatively, Vote Corbyn, save Brexit…

Which Remainer are you? Post-Brexit Edition

You can take the pre-referendum quiz here

No Article 50 Until 2017

FARAGE+JUNCKER

Jason Coppel QC, speaking for Brexit Secretary David Davis, has told the High Court that Article 50 will not be triggered this year. Some Brexiters will be nervous about this, but there is no legal imperative to trigger it immediately and it would be politically unwise to do so until there is an established negotiating position. Read Guido’s case for not triggering Article 50 until the deal is clear here. In the meantime May, Fox and Davis can get to work. Brexit complete by 2019…

UKIP Seeking to Take Advantage of “Oily” Smith

UKIP are rolling their tanks onto Labour’s lawn after Owen Smith said he would try to block Brexit if he becomes leader. Yesterday “Oily” Smith went viral after he pledged a second referendum and admitted it was “tempting” not to trigger Article 50. UKIP leadership frontrunner Steven Woolfe tells Guido such a move would turn the north purple:

“Owen Smith’s disdain for his own voters is frankly disgraceful. My message to the millions who have been left behind by Labour’s sneering and condescending political class is simple – UKIP will speak for you. We are your new home.”

Smith’s rhetoric might appeal to Europhiles in the PLP, but 70% of Labour MPs represent seats which voted to Leave. This graph from Professor Matthew Goodwin shows the Leave vote in Labour areas:

leave

A new, northern, working class UKIP leader versus an oily, Surrey-dwelling Europhile Labour leader? It’s obvious who UKIP want to win the Labour leadership – Owen Smith is the kamikaze candidate…

Fallon Welches on £1,000 Piers Morgan Bet

Both Michael Fallon and John Whittingdale made pre-referendum bets that, should Cameron lose the vote, he wouldn’t resign. Now Piers is calling in his bets, promising to donate the winnings to charity. Pay up, Fallon…

People occasionally ask Guido, with a sense of foreboding, when will the pundit and polling analyst Dan Hodges do his naked Brexit run? Guido will be negotiating the time and location with the sagacious streaker this week. Stay tuned…

UPDATE: Piers wants Guido to remind Whitto as well:

Eton-ian Gives Chuka £15,000

chuka ETONIAN

Always interesting to see which Labour moderates are quietly amassing war chests via donations from rich City types. Chuka Umunna has trousered £15,000 from Eton Capital Management hedgie Nick Campsie and another £7,500 from Innocent Smoothies boss Richard Reed, supposedly to fund his naff Vote Leave Watch idea. […] Read the rest

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