Jean-Claude Juncker is so unsteady at the NATO Summit several people have to help the apparently drunk president of the European Commission stay upright on his feet. He falls backwards at one point into the man behind him. You can see Theresa May awkwardly smiling at him…
Number 10 has repeatedly insisted to Guido over the last week that their Chequers deal will allow them to do a trade deal with the US. It seems President Trump disagrees. Full quotes from the The Sun.
On Brexit negotiations:
“I would have done it much differently. I told Theresa May how to do it but she didn’t agree, she didn’t listen to me… Deals that take too long are never good ones. If you look, she probably went the opposite way.”
On the Cabinet’s Chequers compromise:
“I think the deal she is striking is not what the people voted on, exactly. It was not the deal that was in the Referendum… it will definitely affect trade with the United States unfortunately in a negative way… Trump tells me: “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal.”
“He is a very talented guy. I was very saddened to see that he was leaving Government and I hope he goes back in at some point because… I think he is a great representative for your country. I think he’s got what it takes and I think he has got the right attitude to be a great Prime Minister.”
With so much of the core Tory vote coming from Leave supporters, these numbers are more cause for concern. Back in April, Theresa May had a net approval rating of +10 with Leave voters. Now it is -23. If that even starts to replicate itself across the Tory party at an election, MPs are losing their seats…
This briefing document by Martin Howe QC is being circulated by Brexiteer MPs. It says that the government’s white paper commits to binding ECJ jurisdiction in Britain and concludes:
The repeated claims made by the government and the Prime Minister over the last few days that the Chequers proposals would result in “Restoring the supremacy of British courts by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK” (point 9 in letter from TM to DD in response to his resignation letter) are therefore not true. The supremacy of British courts is certainly not restored. The jurisdiction of the ECJ “in” the UK is only ended in the sense that the route by which the ECJ will continue to exercise its supremacy over British courts is via the international joint reference procedure rather than by direct references from British courts.
Here is Jacob Rees-Mogg’s response to the white paper:
“This is the greatest vassalage since King John paid homage to Phillip II at Le Goulet in 1200. This White paper has not needed age to turn yellow. There are very few signs of the Prime Minister’s famous red lines. It is a pale imitation of the paper prepared by David Davis, a bad deal for Britain. It is not be something I would vote for nor is it what the British people voted for. In particular this paper sets out that the UK will be subject to EU laws while having no say in their creation. The Common Rule Book will not be Common it will be EU law, interpreted by the EU Court with the UK subjected to EU fines for non-compliance. The UK has accepted it cannot diverge from ‘ongoing harmonisation’ without activating repercussions for Northern Ireland. In effect Parliament will have no say over future EU laws implemented in the UK. The UK has accepted that it will collect and hand over EU taxes. This is an unwarranted intrusion into the control of our border. The absence of reciprocity is concerning and the cost to the taxpayer unknown. Taken as a whole this recreates many of the worst aspects of the EU the British people voted to leave. This does not respect the referendum result.”
There is a lot of talk among Tory MPs that Number 10 now fears the number of letters of no confidence in Theresa May is close to reaching the 48 threshold. Several MPs have told Guido this morning that Downing Street has signalled it believes the number is approaching 48. Over the last 24 hours whips have asked MPs who they believe may have submitted letters to Graham Brady to withdraw them or risk putting Corbyn in Number 10. Some Tory Brexiteers are cautioning colleagues against putting letters in now, telling them to wait until after the summer recess as they believe they have a better chance of removing May then, when it becomes clear further concessions to the EU are being planned. A senior ERG MP tells Guido:
“While this is about change of policy, it’s obvious now that this won’t happen unless we have a change of leader. The PM and No10 appear completely tone deaf and on too many occasions have treated Brexiteers with utter contempt.
But if 48 letters go in now, Theresa may well win a vote of confidence. What most sensible Tory MPs are doing is waiting until we get back from recess after summer.
“If Theresa hasn’t dramatically changed this dismal excuse for an offer by then, and worse still, concedes even further to the EU, then the letters go in and she is finished. MPs in Brexit-voting seats know they will have seriously let their constituents down if they deliver BRINO while pretending it’s what people voted for. It’s shameful.”
May is in the danger zone…
Michel Barnier is very sorry but he is too busy to meet George Soros and his hardcore fringe group of ultra-Remainers Best for Britain. Emails obtained by Guido show that repeated attempts by Soros to secure a meeting with the EU’s chief negotiator have been politely rebuffed. First Soros asked for a meeting at the beginning of November, but Barnier was busy:
Not deterred, Soros tried again a couple of weeks later. Barnier didn’t even give an excuse this time:
You might have thought that by now Soros would get the message. Not so, he tried again, only be rejected a third time:
Would Eloise Todd from Soros’ ultra-Remain campaign group Best For Britain have any more luck securing a meeting with Barnier? Sadly not, and it took him months to even reply with a rejection.
He’s just not that into you…
Horrendous numbers for the Tories and Theresa May via YouGov as the public rejects her Chequers deal. May and the Tories lose badly on every metric, as voters back DD and Boris’ decision to quit. Remainers / Soft Brexiters and Number 10 had hoped the public weren’t following the detail. They aren’t fools.
The classless response of top European Commission official Martin Selmayr after extra time last night:
— Martin Selmayr (@MartinSelmayr) July 11, 2018
You would have thought Selmayr might show more restraint when it comes to Croatia. His grandfather Josef Selmayr was Lieutenant Colonel on Hitler’s General Staff in the Balkans, running Yugoslavia when it was under Nazi control. This is a photo of Yugoslav resistance fighters liberating Yugoslavia from Selmayr’s command in 1944:
In 1948, Selmayr was sentenced to 15 years in jail for war crimes. 70 years later, at least his grandson is actually supporting Croatia…
UPDATE: Selmayr’s grandfather on the other side, Heinz Gaedcke, also served as a general under Hitler in the Second World War.
This piece from the Telegraph letters editor Christopher Howse should have Tory MPs fearing for their political futures. Howse says the paper has been deluged by hundred of letters from furious readers since Theresa May’s Brexit sellout, a level of anger not seen since the expenses scandal.
“By heaven, there have been a lot of them since Friday, when Theresa May held the Cabinet hostage, phoneless, in her Buckinghamshire hideout – hundreds and hundreds of them, whizzing from the electronic Cloud like shooting stars on a mid-August night.
All are read and the Editor takes notice of them, but only a fraction can be published. And not since the summer of the MPs’ expenses scandal in 2009 has such an angry invasion force taken the Letters page by storm. For anger has indeed been their main propellant…
Quite a few, in their anger, declared that they will never vote again. I’m not sure they will keep to their resolve, as the months go by, but it is worrying. After all, the EU’s democratic deficit motivated many to vote for Brexit in the first place. If someone is interested enough to follow politics in a newspaper and then put finger to keyboard to send a letter for publication, it is bad if they are not to be heard through the ballot box, too.”
Have Number 10 and those Tories backing the Chequers deal underestimated the anger of their core vote?
Punchy stuff from Channel 4’s FactCheck, who have accused Boris Johnson of lying in his resignation letter about EU safety regulations. Would be pretty embarrassing if Factcheck got it wrong…
“If a country cannot pass a law to save the lives of female cyclists — when that proposal is supported at every level of UK Government — then I don’t see how that country can truly be called independent.”
FactCheck took exception to his assertion that the UK government supported the proposal, telling their readers: “he’s wrong… he’s left out some key details… the UK government explicitly did not support the proposals”. FactCheck emailed Team Boris telling them: “as you’ll know, the government did not support the EU regulation on the matter”. Yet it turns out it is FactCheck who “left out some key details”…
In 2013, the European Commission published the proposed change to the regulation. FactCheck are right that the UK government initially signalled it would oppose the change – indeed in January 2014 Boris expressed his concern about the UK position. Yet what FactCheck don’t mention is that the UK government’s actual decision, when it came to the European Council vote in April 2015, was to vote in favour. The UK government did support it…
So when FactCheck said to Boris that “the government did not support the EU regulation on the matter”, they omitted to mention that, actually, it did. Boris was calling for this change to be made a year before the EU passed it – if the UK was a sovereign nation in control of its laws we could have implemented it ourselves. Yet another example of the media’s blind hatred of Boris resulting in basic factual errors…
NB. Of course this is the same Channel 4 whose editor last year liked a tweet calling Boris a “c**t”.
.@GuidoFawkes – You say we omit UK’s European Council 2015 vote in favour of the law.
Our article states: “The European Council, which includes representation from the UK government, later adopted the directive”
— C4 News FactCheck (@FactCheck) July 11, 2018
Doubling down on their stupidity. The European Council is made up of heads of government of the EU’s 28 countries. Its job is to provide political direction. It is the Council of the EU which deals with legislation. They are two different institutions.
Scoop from Patrick O’Flynn: Number 10 has blocked the reappointment of David Davis’ former chief of staff Stewart Jackson as Dominic Raab’s SpAd at Dexeu:
BIG EXCLUSIVE from me (ie I think I’m first with this): Downing Street blocking the reappointment of stout Leaver Stewart Jackson @BrexitStewart as SpAd at DexEU despite Dominic Raab wanting him to carry on. Leavers not welcome in this Government. Shocking stuff.
— Patrick O’Flynn (@oflynnmep) July 10, 2018
Confirmed by Jacko’s wife Sarah O’Grady:
Unfortunately yes. Gutted for Stewie. Backroom boys using the PM’s name. Am sure she doesn’t know. She’d never maliciously put Izzy’s dad out of work. https://t.co/fAThllqRg9
— Sarah O’Grady (@ExpressOGrady) July 10, 2018
This is going down very badly in the Commons tea room. Brexiteers not welcome…
Iain Dale quite rightly calls out a classic piece of BBC bias, as he is introduced on Newsnight as a Brexit supporter whilst the strongly Remain views of Matthew Parris and Rachel Shabi go unmentioned. The BBC always do this – Guido is often introduced on the Beeb as being from a “right-wing website”, though you never hear BBC presenters talk about the left-wing Guardian or the left-wing Mirror, HuffPo, or New Statesman. Iain also pointed out that once again the Newsnight panel was two-to-one in favour of Remainers. Evan did wince a bit awkwardly before conceding the point. As ever…
Over 14,000 Guido readers have voted in our Twitter poll over the last 24 hours. A resounding 87% of them have delivered a crushing verdict rejecting Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Just 13% voted in support. It is clear that readers of this website, many of whom will be the sorts of Leave voters that Tory MPs need to keep their seats, think it’s a turd…
A survey by ConservativeHome of 1,225 Tory members has found that 61% of them, three in five, think the government’s proposal would be a bad deal for Britain. Just 31% think it is a good deal. Guido cannot help but wonder if Michael Gove and Sajid Javid, in selling out and backing the deal, have sealed their fates in terms of their leadership ambitions.
The Tories have lost their overall poll lead with YouGov this week. They are now level with Corbyn’s Labour on 39%. 14% say May’s plan is good for Britain, 33% say it is bad. More people think it does not respect the referendum result than think it does. 18% think the government is doing well at negotiating Brexit, 66% think it is doing badly.
Guido readers, Tory members and voters all agree – May’s deal is bad for Britain…
In the space of just nine months the number of Leave-backing Tories with confidence in Theresa May has fallen to barely half (52%). The much fewer Remain backing Tories who have confidence is stable (78%). The number of normally loyal Leave-backing Tories who want her to go immediately has jumped from 6% to 25%. Incidentally, these figures correlate quite well with the ConservativeHome readers panel numbers. Dangerous times for Theresa…
An excellent, must-watch interview with Steve Baker in which he explains why Theresa May must change her Brexit policy, reveals how Downing Street blindsided Dexeu and expresses righteous anger at Number 10 briefing against Brexiters. Leave Tory MPs – especially those being offered career advancement – should watch and listen…
Can Raab honestly look his colleagues in the eye and say he supports the PM’s deal? They say a good lawyer can argue a brief even if he doesn’t believe it…