Fraser Nelson on economic forecasting’s terrible record…

“Economic forecasting has had a mixed record of late. A recent Bloomberg study looked at 469 downturns in national economies between 1988 and 2019, and found that the International Monetary Fund predicted only four by the spring of the year before they began. In the UK, there was that recession predicted after the Brexit vote that didn’t materialise. The 2009 crash that, as the Queen pointed out, no one saw coming.”