SpAds across government are preparing for their next jobs – some are planning on staying closer to politics than others. Local Tories have spotted Will Tanner, the PM’s Deputy Chief of Staff and founder of centrist Tory think tank Onward, on visits to Tory functions in Essex, including recent association social events in Basildon and Billericay – majority 20,412 and held by standing down MP John Baron. Guido also notices an incognito Tanner popped up in the back of a group of Tory canvassers in Epping three days ago. He won’t thank Richard Holden for posting that one…
Tanner is joining the rest of the Onward crew in visiting safe(ish) seats. Deputy Director Adam Hawksbee has dropped into association meetings in Tory safe seat Solihull and is seen as a top contender there. Nick Timothy has already bagged the selection for Matt Hancock’s West Suffolk. Seb Payne has had no luck yet. Guido hears the crew have a gentleman’s agreement not to apply against one another…
While its staff look for seats Onward is quietly preparing a large-scale initiative with a six-figure price tag to push the Tory Party leftwards following a bruising election defeat. To have its generals in Parliament would aid that project…
You might think that while the ‘evil plotters’ plan moves to replace Sunak before the election, other Tory factions are resting on their laurels. No chance…
Guido hears Tory wet think tank Onward is quietly preparing a major polling and focus group project whose aim is to blame the Tories’ loss of the election on the right wing of the party and lay the groundwork for a leadership bid. That’s while their personnel gun for safe Tory seats this election…
Onward, founded by No 10’s Will Tanner, is reportedly set to hire pollster for the Remain campaign and Best for Britain James Kanagasooriam or Theresa May’s old pollster James Johnson to take up the project. With a six-figure price tag, the report will include extensive polling and focus groups – set to be published after an election defeat. Guido hears donors are being approached to fund the centrist putsch’s starting gun…
Onward doesn’t deny the plans: “As part of our Future Politics programme, we conduct regular opinion research and we’ll be doing the same again for the 2024 election, just as we did in 2019“. A senior Tory insider tells Guido: “There are real concerns about a plot to frame the post-election narrative and make sure a standard-bearer of the left is in pole position for the next leadership contest.” Sticking in the centre hasn’t worked so far for Rishi…
Guido was scrolling on Twitter earlier and noticed a reply to a BBC article about the Tory right factions rebelling over Rwanda. The tweet likens the Rwanda bill scuffle to “Fascists versus (just a little bit less) Fascists but liars, cheats and charlatans all the same“. Naturally it got very little attention, apart, bizarrely, from No 10’s Deputy Chief of Staff Will Tanner. Tanner gave it a like…
Tanner doesn’t have one of those “Likes and Retweets are not endorsements” (when they usually are) notices in his bio. Funnily enough it was Tanner who got rolled out to negotiate with rebellious MPs last week – maybe he wanted to vent online…
This is a difficult week for Downing Street, the Rwanda vote negotiations are a balancing act. Some sixty Tory MPs, including former ministers Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, don’t think the proposals go far enough. Deputy Chief of Staff Will Tanner had the job of ringing around MPs this morning to get them to back the government. He is saying to recalcitrant sceptical MPs that ministers could commit to ignore all Strasbourg Rule 39 Injunctions (the Strasbourg Court’s tendency to to recommend interim measures in proceedings before the court – like grounding Rwanda bound planes at the last minute). Tactically this might see a planeload of unwanted illegal migrants getting onboard at short notice and flying out before the judges in Strasbourg could make final rulings. This seems to only be a dispatch box commitment for the moment however.
This comes as Sunak specifies today for the first time that he would ignore at least some Rule 39 injunctions – a question he dodged on the 7th. Tanner says he’s pushing on an amendment to block individual claims – something that would likely mean a load of One Nation ministers resigning. It is fair to say that Downing Street is stressed at the moment over the vote and this morning’s deliberately timed Telegraph poll.
Guido was out and about in Westminster last night chatting to SpAds about their job searches. One near despondent SpAd was beginning to panic that they would not secure a move across to the private sector before the value of their government contacts expired worthless. An anecdote from a recent Thursday night SpAd school is illustrative of the state of morale within the SpAd class;
Last month the PM’s Deputy Chief of Staff, Will Tanner, tried to boost morale at the increasingly thinly attended weekly SpAd school session –
“I’m here to tell you that the polls are wrong. They were wrong about Brexit, they were wrong when it came to the independence referendum and they’re wrong again now. You shouldn’t pay any attention to them. We’ve got this. Look at Labour – they don’t have any long term plan on AI but we do.”
This message was delivered to stunned silence on the part of the SpAds – nobody had any questions when prompted by Tanner to ask. Everyone just quietly left and shuffled off to the pub. It was a jaw-dropping moment when finally most of the room realised some in Number 10 had “lost their marbles”.
“From 10 months ago when Liam Booth-Smith told SpAd school we needed to be 10 points behind by the autumn to this – a steady 20-point deficit and a plan to just ignore the polls. In the pub Will was dubbed Comical Willy after Saddam’s Comical Ali”
The atmosphere this week at drinks parties is one where Labour confidence is verging on smug and Tories have a resigned gallows humour. Many in Downing Street and Whitehall are just going through the motions…
Almost all of Liz Truss’s radical restructuring of No. 10 has been undone by Rishi, Guido understands. From Liz’s first days in office she made it clear her Downing Street operation would be run very differently to recent iterations and set about moving swathes of SpAds out of No. 10 as well as de-prioritising the press office.
How did that work out?
One of her main campaign promises – directed to MPs – was that the press office had become too important in Downing Street’s day-to-day operations, and would be moved out of No. 12 after having been based there since Alastair Campbell’s days. Instead, Liz promised, the whips office would move back in to improve party management. Again, it didn’t go to plan…
In the last two weeks, Rishi has reversed both of these changes. Liz also moved dozens of SpAds out of Downing Street and into the Cabinet Office, under the control of Cabinet Office Economic & Domestic Secretariat – run by Rachel Reeves‘ husband.
Under Liz, the data science unit, legislative affairs unit, delivery unit and much of the Boris-era policy unit moved out of No. 10.
While data science and delivery are staying put under Rishi, legislative affairs and the policy unit have moved wholesale back into No. 10.
Among these structural changes, Guido’s list continues to grow. The policy unit is getting filled rapidly, with Eleanor Shawcross in as head of policy, James Nation as her deputy and Douglas McNeill as the PM’s economic advisor. Jean Andre Prager is back as DWP & DCMS advisor – Rishi is his fourth PM, making him the spiritual deputy to Sheridan Westlake…
Following his scoop last week that Will Tanner is moving back to No. 10 as Rishi’s deputy chief of staff, Guido can add that Will is one of two deputy chiefs of staff, with long-time aide Rupert Yorke taking the political deputyship and Tanner the policy deputyship.
Lisa Lovering is in as head of operations, and former Boris and Zac Goldsmith advisor Nathan Johnson Paul is in the political team.
Guido’s pleased to say he now has at least one SpAd nailed down for each department. As ever, get in touch with any updates…
Read the list in full here and below:
