With Steven Woolfe out and more candidates throwing their hats into the ring, Guido brings you an update on the UKIP leadership race:
Suzanne Evans: Quietly gathering signatures for her nomination. Her suspension has lapsed, she should be a member in good standing for 28 days (we think) and thus eligible. Bookies’ favourite. Will her closeness to the Farage-hating Carswell faction cost her with the grassroots?
Paul Nuttall: Other candidates fear Nuttall will win if he stands. This Telegraph article sounds like he wants it. Though there is no noticeable effort to gather signatures, he didn’t want to run last time and will be asking himself if it’s really worth it. Dithering or not bothering at all?
Raheem Kassam: Loudly gathering the necessary signatures. Has been campaigning hard online and thinks he has enough signatures to submit the paperwork on Sunday. If Nuttall doesn’t run there is a possibility Raheem could actually do it. His price to win is tighter than Trump’s!
Peter Whittle: UKIP’s London mayoral candidate is popular in the capital. While campaigning in Witney he appeared on one of Kassam’s campaign videos and even said his rival’s slogan: “Make UKIP Great Again”, though he tells Guido he is not on Team Raheem. Also quietly gathering signatures.
Bill Etheridge: Said he’d stand unless there was somebody he could back 100%. Accused of cheating by his fiancee. Has been round the rubber chicken circuit.
David Kurten: Lower profile, tried to be nominated as UKIP’s mayoral candidate with a false London address. When Breitbart asked him how he responded to allegations of racism in UKIP he replied: “UKIP isn’t racist, I love white people!”
Suzanne, Nuttall and Raheem are the frontrunners…
Above shows the latest odds from the bookies courtesy of Betdata.io. In a situation that is very fluid the betting markets are probably the best place to gain insight into the candidate’s support – real money rather than spin. Woolfe pulling out is good for Kassam, his chances have since shot up, with a lot of his Faragist support going to Raheem. He’s running a characteristically energetic campaign online.
Suzanne Evans is the bookies’ favourite and the truth of that position is bolstered by YouGov polling:
This situation will change rapidly. The YouGov polling above was done before Woolfe had quit and Kassam had declared. It is still unclear if Nuttall is definitely running. Suzanne has not exactly been campaigning hard having only had it confirmed yesterday by the UKIP NEC that she could be a candidate. Nominations close on Halloween, the full horror show finishes on November 28…
UKIP’s NEC has ditched the requirement for leadership candidates to have been members for two years, reducing the minimum membership period to 28 days. Candidates will now need 75 signatures to put their name forward, an increase of 25. What does this all mean? Raheem Kassam and Suzanne Evans WILL be eligible to stand…
The timetable is as follows:
“Applications will close at 12pm GMT (noon) on Monday October 31st 2016. Ballots will be sent to members shortly after 11th November and we will be announcing who will be our new Leader on Monday 28th November.”
Nuttall and Kassam are the frontrunners in online polls…
After the surprise resignation of new UKIP leader Diane James, Guido brings you the latest runners and riders in UKIP’s leadership battle (odds from Betfair):
Paul Nuttall – Evens
Forever in Farage’s shadow, Nuttall has been deputy leader of UKIP for the last six years. His Liverpudlian roots could appeal to the working class north in a way that Evans or Kassam could only ever dream. The favourite after the fracas despite not yet confirming that he is standing…
Steven Woolfe – 2/1
The front runner in the last leadership contest until he forgot to submit his papers on time. Woolfe seemed to take the latest UKIP fight literally when he was in an alleged punch up with fellow MEP Mike Hookem. No longer the favourite post fracas and leaking of his talks with the Conservative Party.
Suzanne Evans – 4/1
Suzanne Evans was a Conservative Party councillor who defected to UKIP in 2013. Highly praised for writing UKIP’s 2015 manifesto, she was later suspended from the party for criticising a fellow candidate. Close to Carswell. Evans’s suspension has lapsed just in time for the latest contest.
Raheem Kassam – 15/1
Nigel Farage’s former chief of staff and current London editor of Breitbart, Kassam has already launched his online campaign to be leader with the slogan “Make UKIP great again” but his odds have been widening in the last few days. Most observers think he’s really running for the deputy-leader spot. The former Conservative Party activist is making a big thing of attacking “Blue Kippers”. Like Nigel he’s very much a Marmite character.
Bill Etheridge – 27/1
MEP for the West Midlands and another former Conservative Party member. In the last leadership election he was accused of cheating by his fiancee when she found a half empty packet of Viagra in his car. Lad.
UKIP’s NEC is meeting this coming Monday to determine rules and timeframe…
UPDATE: Guido is told that Peter Whittle AM, UKIP’s former candidate for London mayor is also in the running (currently 27/1). A cultured fellow, if Guido’s memory serves him right he too is also a former Conservative Party member.
Guido hears Suzanne Evans’ suspension from UKIP has expired and she has been reinstated to the party. Of course they are all being very Ukippy about it – new leader Diane James publicly described Suzanne as a “woman scorned” and the party say she still owes them £5,000 after her failed attempt to sue them and they expect her to pay up. Welcome back…
UPDATE: On the £5,000 debt Suzanne says “They only sent the bill very recently” and “I’m still waiting for a proper fee note of work done as requested”.
WATCH: Suzanne Evans endorses Lisa Duffy for UKIP leader. Who? pic.twitter.com/V7KSXsk4j9
— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) July 26, 2016
Suzanne Evans’ “major announcement” this morning was that she is endorsing councillor Lisa Duffy for UKIP leader. Who? Lisa describes herself as Patrick O’Flynn’s chief of staff and the “Chair of Ramsey Christmas Lights”. She has been an important and well-liked behind-the-scenes organiser in recent years. Emphasis on ‘behind the scenes’ – she has just 200 Twitter followers and Guido can’t recall ever having seen her on TV. Suzanne says Lisa will take the party to the centre and get rid of the image created by Nigel Farage, which won four million votes at the election and helped win the referendum. It’s Steven Woolfe’s to lose…
