Labour has given away the Chagos Islands to China-aligned Mauritius, the move being slammed as “weak” and “outrageous” by hacks and Tory benches alike. Starmer and Lammy have managed to dodge the heat, pushing this decision through during recess—convenient timing, keeping them safely out of the firing line in the Commons…

It was less than a month ago that Jonathan Powell was appointed as the special envoy on talks. And just a few days ago, Lord Kempsell was told by ministers that “it was too early to speculate on timelines and conclusions” on negotiations:

Nine days ago, the government asserted that no conclusion had been made. They say a week is a long time in politics, yet how can this decision have been made in such a short period of time?

There will be long sessions of soul-searching in the offices of UK pollsters this morning as the Guido team’s highly scientific whiteboard-based prediction beat every single final MRP projection they put out. All but two constituencies are now decided. Ross Kempsell is officially the victor, beating the rest of the team and every single UK pollster’s final seat MRP prediction for accuracy…

Guido has crunched the numbers and found that an average of the team’s predictions is closer to the actual result than all of those expensive and overhyped MRP final seat forecasts. YouGov came closest to matching Guido’s gold standard…

If you don’t believe it, you can check the underlying data tables here. Variance is the difference between actual seats and the predictions – the lower, the better. Collectively we are what Dominic Cummings would describe as super-forecasters. Why hire the pollsters when you can just check Guido…

Guido’s graduate training programme continues to bear fruit. Yesterday evening the new peer Ross Kempsell gave his first speech in the House of Lords. He was not long ago a reporter with good grammar and a nose for a story. He went from Guido to become TalkRadio’s political editor, then to Downing Street for SpAdding, with a sojourn at The Times, before heading over to CCHQ to again set the country’s news agenda through Conservative Research Department. He was valued highly by Boris Johnson for his loyalty and sharp mind…

Kempsell last night gave a sharp critique of the government’s poor use of evidence in government spending decisions – “the lacuna that lies at the heart of government intervention itself.” Ross then touched on the “decades of hard work and aspiration” of his forebears and adapted John Major’s favourite quote for the Lords: “What did a passion for policy and debate do for a boy from Stevenage? It would lead him to serve in your Lordships’ house, and that is where I intend to contribute diligently with the benefit of guidance of noble Lords, on the questions before us today, and I hope many more to come.” Hear, hear…

Never say that Guido’s graduate training programme doesn’t lead to places. Five years ago Ross Kempsell was a reporter. He was a pretty good reporter and his copy was as grammatically precise as you would expect from someone with a double-first from Cambridge. He went from Guido to become TalkRadio’s political editor, then to Downing Street as a Special Adviser, with a sojourn at The Times, before going to CCHQ to run the Conservative Research Department – honing it into a war-room with a focus on attacking the opposition and driving the news agenda. When he was Prime Minister, Boris Johnson valued his loyalty and advice highly. Hence he rewarded Ross with a peerage.

On the red benches Ross will no doubt be an energetic and articulate advocate for liberty.  Congratulations, M’Lord.

Guido can reveal that former Kwasi SpAd Marcus Natale is to return to SW1 as head of the Tory party’s research department. Marcus transferred from CCHQ to the Downing Street briefing team in 2019. The CRD vacancy was created when Ross Kempsell decided to depart with Boris.

Unlike some of Kwasi’s other advisers who made it onto the Jeremy Hunt life raft, Natale departed Whitehall in October alongside his former Treasury boss.

The job ad – intriguingly re-upped after the initial deadline for an extra month at the end of 2022 – demanded a candidate with exceptional political judgement, attention to detail and communication skills. Going forward, Marcus will “lead and execute the Party’s day-to-day political strategy and research, offering immediate, comprehensive, strategic, consistent and effective advice to senior members of the party.” To anyone wondering, Natale is a Sicilian surname; so if any opposition shadow cabinet members wake up with horses’ heads in their beds…

This week there has been a coordinated attempt to drive the outrage bus over Boris’s resignation list, it hasn’t really got going – probably because the list is a lot shorter than most suspected (so much for the so called ‘lavender list’ warnings that Boris would try to appoint 50 peers) and the fact the MPs on it are deferring any by-elections. Which is a peace-making gesture to Rishi that he would be unwise to spurn…

This morning’s Telegraph picks on Charlotte Owen, whose crime appears to be that she is a young woman in politics, reporting disapprovingly that she is 27 years of age, she is actually 29. The Times complained yesterday that Ross Kempsell was in his twenties, he is 30. If you are going to thunder about someone’s age, best get it right.

There are many issues with the Lords and how appointments are made that need reforming, appointing younger peers is surely not one of them. The average age in the upper chamber is 71, 13 members are aged 90 or over. The highest concentration of members from all parties is in the 70–79 age band, except the bishops, whose members mostly fall into the spritely 60 – 69 age band. The house is regularly referred to as a retirement home, which it should not be, considering it is a working legislature. Injecting some youth might be energising…

There are recent precedents for young advisers in their thirties being appointed by departing PMs; Cameron made Nat Wei a Lord at 33 and his press secretary Gabby Bertin was 38 when she became a Baroness, Jo Jo Penn was 34 when Theresa May put her in ermine. Let’s also not forget that the previous youngest person ever to receive a life peerage at 32 years of age, Lord Redesdale, was proposed by the LibDems in 2000….