2017: The Year ‘Experts’ Were Completely Confounded

Among all the predictions of doom and recession the remainers and economists got wrong they were right about one in 2016 – the pound did fall 15% after the vote. This was not unexpected, Leave backing donors like hedge fund manager Crispin Odey figured that out and traded accordingly. The pound was widely seen as over-valued.

The pessimism on the pound continued into 2017, HSBC predicted it would hit parity with the €uro, Remain backing investment bank Morgan Stanley toppped that with a prediction that the € would surge past parity to be worth £1.02. Brexit-backing economist Roger Bootle’s firm Capital Economics stuck their neck out at the same time and said the £ would finish at €1.13. The pound ended the year at €1.12…

Goldman Sachs’ CEO Lloyd Blankfein has been outspoken against Brexit, his firm forecast sterling would fall from $1.25 to $1.14 in 2017. In fact, it has risen to $1.35. Goldmans also forecast  that the 10-year gilt yields that determine government borrowing costs would rise from 1.28% to 1.65%. They fell to 1.19%…

We were told that banks would leave the City last year, there has been no such exodus, London still has more international banks than any other financial centre in the world. We were told that foreign investors would shuna UK poised to Brexit, yet inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) hit a record high in 2017, dwarfing all other EU countries. The experts were absolutely wrong.

These same Remain supporting investment banks and international institutions are now predicting that Britain’s GDP will plummet outside the EU. Ironically official figures have just been revised up putting UK GDP growth up with Germany. UK and French GDP has been neck and neck for years, France is actually ahead currently. Guido will wager that in a decade the UK’s GDP will actually be greater than that of France. Any takers among economic experts? 



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