Australian Labor Won 54 Polls in a Row, Including Exit Poll, Lost Actual Election

As a shocked Australian Labour Party licks its wounds at the unexpected loss of the election, the governing Liberal Party will be giving thanks to Lynton Crosby’s campaign management and polling. Three months ago every “expert” pundit down under expected and predicted Labor to win the general election. Some exit polls today even showed a clear Labour majority. Even as the counts came in Labor refused to concede. CNN eventually reported that “Labor May Have Lost Unlosable Election”.

The messaging was classic Crosby, repeated continually, Australians were posed a simple choice, “Do you want more jobs or more taxes?” Crosby confounded the pollsters when he delivered a majority Conservative government for Cameron in 2015. He’s done it again against the odds for Morrison in Australia. Tory MPs will be wondering as they mull over their future leadership contenders, whether the combo that delivered London for them in 2008 and 2012 can deliver victory for them again in 2022…

Only 15% Can Recall “Strong & Stable”

YouGov has discovered that only 15% of voters can recall the “Strong and stable” slogan. Lynton Crosby will not be happy until a majority of voters can recall the reason for voting Tory.

UKIP’s slump continues, they are now polling consistently behind the LibDems and at half the level they did in 2015. Guido can’t recall the UKIP slogan…

CCHQ’s Battle Bus Guidance Revealed

battlebus

Where do the Tories stand on the election fraud scandal? They are bang to rights on failing to declare £38,000 of hotel bills for Tory activists, blaming an “administrative error”. The issue of transport – the fabled “battle buses” – is contested. There are three outcomes here. Are CCHQ right when they say they’ve done nothing wrong? Did they breach the rules on national and local spending? Or was there a conspiracy to hide spending from the official declarations?

Leaked emails reveal CCHQ told their local campaign teams that the cost of hotels and battle buses would be “accounted for out of central campaign spend”. It stressed transport within the seat was not included: “For legal reasons the Battlebus cannot ferry people around the seat”.

The arrangement had the “personal sponsorship” of Grant Shapps, was “signed off” by Lynton Crosby, Stephen Gilbert and Lord Feldman, and was “supported by Deborah Feldman’s Team in CCHQ“. That’s Lord Feldman’s sister.

The good news for the Tories is this shows they did see battle buses as part of the national campaign all along, and demonstrates they were taking steps to abide by spending laws. So they can argue there wasn’t a conspiracy to hide the cash. The bad news? If the cops find it should have gone down as local spend, the party chairman and his sister are implicated…

Arise, Sir Lynton

The Wizard of Oz gets his K. Congratulations, mate!

15% of Tory Election Budget Went to Crosby’s CTF

ctf

The new Electoral Commission data dump out this morning shows that some £2.4 million, or 15% of the Conservative Party’s £15.5 million election budget, went to Lynton Crosby’s CTF. They spent £369,000 on the services of their American former-Obama campaign guru Jim Messina. Given the against the odds result, that surely represents great value for money…

The BBC point out that UKIP had the most cost-effective campaign:

  • Conservative Party: £1.38 per vote
  • Labour Party: £1.29 per vote
  • Liberal Democrats: £1.46 per vote
  • UKIP: £0.73 per vote
  • SNP: £1.01 per vote
  • Green Party: £0.98

Labour managed to spend £577.58 on chicken suits. Guido has some expertise in this area and bought his for £30.chicken

Labour, overspending as usual…

Crosby on Farage

Sky News Australia have Tory strategist Lynton Crosby’s say on the election. You can tell he particularly enjoyed the UKIP result:

“I don’t think they’ve got a long-term future. You should never write anyone off but they will be a voice of discontent. They are very reliant on the performance of their leader Nigel Farage and even he couldn’t win a seat. Sixth or seventh time he’s tried to win a Westminster seat. I think he might be better coming to Australia and doing talkback radio than trying to run another seat in the UK.”

Well at least Nige’s boys are winning the cricket…

Dave Struggles With Another Three Letter Acronym Text

Along with Boris (late), Hammond (cold),  Fallon (sober-ish), Soubry (jolly), Hancock (bouncy) and former Aussie PM John Howard, the PM laid it on thick last night at Lynton Crosby’s victory party at the Science Museum.

Taking the stage to do his best Australian accent, Dave was sweary:

“‘Stick to your course and bloody do it…’ That is Lynton in a bloody nutshell.”

The PM also revealed he was struggling with three letter acronyms again, this time curt text messages from his campaign manager about “Paisley pyjamas or whatever”:

“I didn’t have my glasses on and could only see WEF, and I was wondering why he was talking about the World Economic Forum.  Turns out it was WTF.”

LOL…

Zac’s Campaign Chair is Nick de Bois, Lynton’s CTF Advising

zac+nic

Guido hears that Zac has managed to secure the services of Nick de Bois, who is apparently going to chair and run Zac’s selection campaign. Lynton Crosby’s CTF Partners are on hand to offer Zac advice on his campaign. For someone who was willing to put his fate in the hands of his electorate, Zac certainly seems serious about it now…

LibDems Ask Crosby Textor Fullbrook for Help

ctf

The LibDem’s Head of Strategic Research, Tom Smithard, has written to CTF, the firm run by Lynton Crosby, Mark Textor and Mark Fullbrook which was hired by the Conservatives at great expense to do their polling and give campaign advice. Guido has been passed Smithard’s strange request:

…  As part of the Liberal Democrat general election review I’ve been asked look into how exactly the Conservatives managed to beat us in the marginals.

I appreciate there are some – maybe many – aspects to your work you wouldn’t necessarily want to detail to former opponents, however vanquished. However I was wondering if you or a member of your team would be willing to speak to me and unlock some of the secrets of your targeting strategy, polling work, ground campaigning etc. I’m sure we’d find whatever you had to say most instructive!

If you have any time to spare and are willing to talk me through some of your work I’d really appreciate it.

Best regards
Tom

Guido asked the LibDems if they were perhaps being a bit naive? They admitted, on reflection, that they “expect the response will come in two words”.

An amused CTF insider suggests they should have asked Lord Ashcroft, who unlike CTF loves telling Labour and the Lib Dems what to do to win…

Bingle Muses on Losing Friends and Alienating People

Legend in his own lunchtime Peter Bingle must be bitterly regretting sending this most unfortunate tweet – among many – on election day. Good luck to any client the flamboyant Tory PR man now registers he is lobbying the Government on behalf of, as this must count as the Gerald Ratner moment of the campaign. Not sure that many Tory MPs will will be keen to be seen with the lobbyist who tried so hard to trash their saviour!

Lynton: Out of Office…

lynton-auto-reply

… but in power.

David Axelrod on Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina

David Axelrod has the last word on his rival campaign managers…

“My operant theory about politics is you’re never as smart as you look when you’re winning and you’re never as dumb as you look when you’re losing.”

It Was Lynton Wot Won It

Fraser Nelson is the first sceptic to pay tribute to the architect of victory…

“Crosby’s strategy, which many (myself included) found infuriatingly dull, has now been utterly vindicated.”

David Axelrod Praises Lynton Crosby’s Tactics

David Axelrod praises Tory TV tactics…

“The one thing they did that was particularly shrewd was they insisted that all the parties participate in the debate. They didn’t do that out of a sense of equity and fairness. They did it because they wanted to give the Scottish National Party a platform and the result is the situation you see today.”

Crosby Declares: “I’d S**k Off David Cameron”

It’s all go down under. In a wide-ranging pre-election intervention, the cast of Geordie Shore, MTV’s Newcastle-based genitourinary gorefest, have had their say on the party leaders. True blue Charlotte Crosby brings the PM some positive news, at last:

“I’d s**k off David Cameron”


One way to shut him up…

Tory Jitters: Backbencher Publicly Slams “Dry Economics Lecture” Plan

Just in time for the Budget, former Tory whip Michael Fabricant has slammed the Tory election strategy, speaking out against the “dry economics lecture” currently on offer:

“The Long Term Economic Plan is a means to an end and so is lowering the deficit.

YouTube videos displaying a reduction in deficit are appropriate for a dry economics lecture, but they are hardly going to win the hearts and souls of the electorate.

We’ve got to say why we want a strong economy, what are those sun lit uplands?

We’ve not just got to win the battle of the minds but the battle of the heart.”

Whatever happened to David “let sunshine win the day” Cameron, who promised the Conservatives would be the “party of optimism”?

Big Tobacco to Government: See You In Court

Fag manufactures Philip Morris have hit back at the plain packaging vote, calling today’s action “an irrational and unnecessary attack on private property that vilifies products that well informed adults choose to buy”:

“The UK Government is ignoring serious legal issues under UK, European, and international law. Five countries are challenging the legality of plain packaging at the World Trade Organization, and 11 EU Member States have objected to the UK’s proposal at the European Commission – recognising their duty under EU treaties to uphold EU law and free competition. At the same time, the EU Court of Justice is considering whether the UK and other Member States have the power to introduce pack standardisation measures beyond those already required by the EU.

While advocates of plain packaging may downplay these issues, the UK Government should be fully aware of the potential consequences of ignoring them, and of rushing to preempt the legal process.”

Guido suspects we would not have plain packaging coming to the UK if it were not for Lynton Crosby. His lobbying connections made it impossible for a Conservative government to veto this nannying, arbitrary measure.

Blue Dawn: Is Lynton’s Late Swing Starting?

UKPR-3-5-15

Is that tiny blue uptick on the right hand edge of this graph the first sign of the long awaited swing to the Tories reportedly forecast by Lynton Crosby? This is the six month rolling 5 day average of all the pollsters* – based on UK Polling Report data. The uptick is a result of the last seven YouGov polls showing three Tory leads, three draws and only one Labour lead. Pollster Anthony Wells reckons “something may indeed be afoot”…

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll is awaited, more eagerly than usual, for confirmation of a trend. Blip or shift?

UPDATE 22:30: False dawn, maybe?

*Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium, Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.

Lynton Crosby Won’t Let David Cameron Do TV Debates

Tim Shipman to Adam Boulton on the TV debates…

“If Cameron gets in a car to go to the debate, Lynton Crosby will stage a car crash.”

How Do You Solve a Problem Like Matthew?

probelm-matthew-parris

Even if they privately agree with him CCHQ strategists don’t appreciate the media interventions by Matthew Parris. Lynton Crosby has decreed that UKIP is to be downplayed and all but ignored insomuch as that is possible. The Clacton bullet is to be bitten and the pain taken without too much complaint or squealing.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

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Quote of the Day

In response to the news that Emily Thornberry described the Lib Dems as “like the Taliban” over their new revoke Article 50 Brexit policy, the former Lib Dem leader responded:

“Come on Emily, if we really were like a Middle East terrorist group, don’t you think Jeremy would’ve invited us to a conference fringe meeting before now?”

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