Eyebrows have long been raised about the widely-cited “independent” Institute for Fiscal Studies report into private school VAT. It has been used to “fact check” widely-held worries that Starmer’s class war on private schools will 1) funnel unsustainable numbers of children into the state system, and 2) not raise enough money. The report has for many months been the only shield for Labour politicians seeking to bat away legitimate concerns over its tax plan…

Last week it was confirmed that already 10,540 fewer students are at private schools – and that’s before Labour’s tax is even introduced. The IFS claimed 17,000-40,000 students in total would shift to the state sector. Co-conspirators might wonder why their report is so sympathetic to Labour’s policy…

As it turns out the caveat-filled report’s only author Luke Sibieta has been close mates for years with the Labour minister responsible for its implementation. Sibieta and Matthew Pennycook lived together in the noughties – Pennycook was even Sibieta’s best man at his wedding. Details of which have been meticulously scrubbed from almost everywhere on the internet…

The government has confirmed that the business rates policy change, one half of the tax raid on private schools, “will be legislated for through a Local Government Finance Bill led by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.” Pennycook’s department…

Lobby journalists treat interventions from ‘independent’ tax-fanatics at the IFS – such as today’s new call to massively hike capital gains tax – as gospel. Maybe when hacks work out that these wonks might not be as impartial as they are so desperate to appear they will treat endlesss calls for tax increases with a little more scepticism…

Co-conspirators will remember the “independent” Institute for Fiscal Studies report into private school VAT. The paper was jumped on by Labour and left-wing papers to “fact check” widely-held worries that Starmer’s class war on private schools will 1) funnel unsustainable numbers of children into the state system, and 2) not raise enough money. The paper allowed Labour politicians to “disagree” with challenges from the industry in media appearances, all without scrutiny…

The caveat-filled report’s author Luke Sibieta said he expects “that the change in private school attendance levels will be small. This leads to surer increases in tax revenues and less need for additional public spending on state schools.” Where Sibieta claims the policy will raise “£1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run” because only 40,000 children will switch to the state system, the vast majority of other reports predict that the policy will actually be cost-negative before too long. Guido wonders if there is any particular reason why the report’s author would want to support the policy…

Sibieta studied at UCL, teaching at which was Francis Green, chairman of the Private Education Policy Forum – an organisation which seeks to disparage and ultimately disband private schools. They have both contributed to the IFS’ major “Inequality Review”. Two months ago Green appeared at the PEPF to chat about his Labour-supporting report. Privately-educated Green also happens to have advised Jeremy Corbyn when the VAT policy and others were first drafted in 2017. Seven years later the PEPF is drawing up plans with the Labour Party for the state to take over schools that are forced to shut due to the extra tax. No wonder that Sibieta has produced a paper in support of a policy to further that plan…

UPDATE: The IFS says: “Luke cannot recall ever having met Francis“.