The Spectator held a tax panel at Tory Conference this afternoon at which the Laffer Curve naturally came up. Former Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott made a hash of her government’s record by claiming that the “higher rate” of CGT was cut at the last budget which raised more revenue. In fact it was only the CGT rate on property which Hunt cut (from 28 to 24) and the revenue effect won’t be known until 2026…

Institute for Fiscal Studies chief Paul Johnson chimed in on whether there were any taxes for which a cut would boost Treasury coffers:

“Tobacco duty: but that’s not necessarily something I would suggest.”

That’s a sound admission from the tax-favourable IFS. As Guido has pointed out the Treasury is losing billions every year thanks to an ever-swelling black market. £4 billion in tax revenue from tobacco – the entire policing budget – was foregone last year alone. As usual evidence isn’t factored in to politicians’ decision-making…

Guido hears shadow cabinet secretaries Coutinho and Trott have written draft endorsement op-eds for fellow female shadow cabinet member Kemi Badenoch in this weekend’s Sunday papers. The endorsements are reportedly set to kickstart Badenoch’s attempts to woo MPs ahead Wednesday’s crucial first round ballot…

Rival camps tell Guido they are “unsurprised.” One quipped: “You can’t forge a path to forty votes on the back of two of your pals from Cabinet.” Another said: “Claire’s been going round telling everyone her best chance of a tilt at the job herself is the leader blowing up after three years.“ That’s a yellow card if anything is…

In the latest “uniparty” development the Tories are continuing to rage against Labour’s sound economic decision to means test Gordon Brown’s Winter Fuel Allowance. Known colloquially in endowed circles as the “Champagne Allowance”…

Guido hears local Tory associations are fired up and busy planning protests involving blanket-clad octogenarians turning up at the town hall. The Daily Express has meanwhile launched its “Save Winter Fuel Payments” campaign and got all six Tory leadership contenders to sign up with it. Which proves as The Times opines this morning that “If leadership means anything it is the willingness to put principle before immediate popularity. So far in this competition, the goal that serious Tories pride themselves on prioritising above all others, sound money, is running a distant second to ­gesture politics.” This issue demonstrates just how committed the leadership contenders are to returning to true Conservative ideals…

Senior Tories say pretty much the only thing that has cut through so far under Labour is Reeves’ decision to cut the benefit and deprive retired hedge fund managers of their £300. Expect more socialist bleating in the months to come…

The Times reports that Greater Manchester Police’s investigation into Angela Rayner is not limited only to the electoral roll issue. 12 officers are said to be looking at numerous allegations, including tax, as chief constable Stephen Watson tells BBC Radio Manchester that “there are a number of assertions knocking about” and “we are going to get to the bottom of what has happened”. Greater Manchester Police can also refer information to HMRC and other agencies to trigger further investigations…

The Times’ source says:

“It’s very well resourced, it’s not a single issue. There is a volume of material and a clear public interest to fully investigate.”

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott tells Kay Burley this morning that “people do make mistakes, that happens, if that’s happened then admitting it and moving on would be in everyone’s best interest. But I don’t know the full details of this because they haven’t released the full details of this.” Rayner’s line has not changed: “The house she owned remained her main home.” Labour’s campaign is being thrown off course by the scandal – the investigation will last weeks. This can’t go on forever…

There have been better weeks for Laura Trott. The Chief Secretary to the Treasury yesterday ploughed on in an interview with Evan Davis in which the pair argued whether debt as a percentage of GDP would be falling in five years. In that same interview Trott called Labour’s £28 billion U-turn a mess, “the likes of which we haven’t seen in many years“. Davis listed off a few recent government U-turns in response…

• Betrayal of pledge to not raise National Insurance.
• Health and social care levy scrapped.
• Social care reform scrapped.
• HS2 scrapped.
• Electric car mandate shifted back by five years.
• Immigration reform was reformed. “A U-turn on a U-turn”…
• Railway station ticket halls now staying.
• Fines for missing GP appointments
• A bonfire of EU laws and regulations. Still with us today…

Guido also noticed Trott claiming on Politics Live this week that inflation is an indication of better quality of products and services in an economy. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, something which Guido would hope the minister responsible for public expenditure would know. Laura is one of the government’s more capable ministers on media – this does not bode well for the rest of them come the campaign…

Internal divides aren’t just a Tory trait. Whether or not to stick to the £28 billion a year figure on their green spending plan seems to be a topic of heated debate in the Shadow Cabinet – Rachel Reeves refused to even mention the number last week while Keir Starmer yesterday committed to the the figure on Times Radio. On Politics Live today, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott asked Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson whose team she was on, Rachel Reeves’ or Starmer’s. Bridget made a bit of a Freudian slip: “Rache…uh…Laura..uh…honestly”. Whoops…