Despite record-breaking anti-Tory swings in Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome, as well as a protracted Labour campaign, the Conservatives have held on to Boris’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Thanks, in part, to some credible expectation management from CCHQ, it means an otherwise dire night for the Conservatives doesn’t look so bad, after punters, pundits and pollsters alike predicted the Conservatives would lose all three seats. It could be worse…
After a recount, the Conservatives won in Uxbridge by 495 votes, with a 6.9% swing to Labour – in his victory speech the new MP, Steve Tuckwell, thanked one person in particular:
“Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election and we know it was his damaging and costly ULEZ policy that lost them this election.”
Over to you, Susan…
Elsewhere, results were catastrophic for the Conservatives. In Somerton, LibDem Sarah Dyke won by 11,008 votes in a seat which previously had a 19,000 Tory majority – it was a swing of 29%. Likewise, in Selby Keir Mather will take his seat as the Baby of the House, as Labour won their biggest ever by-election victory, overturning a 20,000 majority to themselves win by 4,161 – on a swing of 23.7%. Pollster John Curtice told the Today programme that Selby and Somerton were more indicative of a General Election. He added that the Tories are “in deep electoral trouble”.
The results in full were:
As Thursday’s by-elections fast approach, Guido was struck by one Facebook campaign ad deployed by Labour in Selby. Labour’s candidate, the youthful Keir Mather, made a somewhat unconventional pitch for constituents to “lend me your vote”:
“In about 12 months time we’ll have a general election. And if you’re not happy with how I’ve done as your MP, you’ll have a chance to have your say again…”
It hardly fills you with confidence…
When you look at what voters already think of their candidate, the approach seems even more questionable. In Lord Ashcroft’s focus group, voters were concerned that Keir “looks about twelve” and that “he’s not very assertive. He might get eaten alive.” Leading with a pitch of ‘it’s only a year, what’s the worst that can happen’ won’t help assuage those doubts…
Mike Jordan, the veteran ex-Tory councillor who quit the party last week in protest at Rishi’s leadership, has been selected as the Yorkshire Party candidate in the Selby & Ainsty by-election next month. Guido first reported he was considering making the jump, now he’s confirmed it…
Jordan said yesterday:
“Nothing is achievable without real local powers. Yorkshire needs a Regional Parliament, controlling a fair budget. Vote for it and make London listen. When the Yorkshire Party wins, Yorkshire wins.”
He previously stood for the Yorkshire Party the 2019 general election, winning 1,900 votes. The Tories, meanwhile, are hoping to defend their 25,000-vote majority with Michael Naughton, who has stood for two other seats in Yorkshire in previous years. Although this morning Michael Crick is reporting that the Tories may have to re-run the selection on the grounds it was conducted on the wrong boundaries, and so involved the wrong members…
Labour have selected 26-year old Keir Mather, who’s backed by the unions and previously worked for the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The LibDems are still messing around trying to pick their candidate. Of the three looming by-elections, this seat should (in theory) be the ‘safest’ for the Tories…
In theory…
