Tories Start 16% Ahead, Curtice Gives Stark Warning

The Tories start the election campaign with a 16 point lead over Labour, who in-turn will find solace from being 9% clear of the Lib Dems. Still lots of undecideds in play for all parties…

However, with First Past the Post and the differences in voting behaviour from region to region, polling expert Sir John Curtice has issued a stark warning to the soaring Tories; predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour.

If the Tories fail to win a majority, Labour will have a much more clear shot at finding coalition bedfellows. Strap in for weeks of psephological speculation…

mdi-timer 30 October 2019 @ 08:45 30 Oct 2019 @ 08:45 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Curtice Prediction

Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on LBC…

“I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election. That makes it difficult for the Tories and Labour to win an overall majority.”

mdi-timer 29 October 2019 @ 14:10 29 Oct 2019 @ 14:10 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Labour Underperforms in By-Election, UKIP Surges

Both major party’s share of the vote fell in Newport West last night, with the Tories falling by 8%, and Labour by 13%. This was a larger fall than expected for Labour after 9 years in opposition. It represents a 2.4% swing from Labour to the Tories…

UKIP outperformed expectations suggesting that the party’s hard turn to the hard right hasn’t cut through to the electorate, or that its voter base simply hasn’t been put off and prioritised sending a signal about Brexit over any other concerns. This should worry both main parties…

The full results were:

  • Labour: 39.6% (-12.7)
  • Conservatives: 31.3% (-8.0)
  • UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)
  • Plaid Cymru: 5.0% (+2.6)
  • Lib Dem: 4.6% (+2.4)
  • Green: 3.9% (+2.8)
  • Renew: 3.7% (+3.7)
  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly: 0.9% (+0.9)
  • SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)
  • Democrats and Veterans: 0.8% (+0.8)
  • For Britain: 0.7% (+0.7)

The only person chuffed with tonight’s voted will be Gerard Batten…

mdi-timer 5 April 2019 @ 08:33 5 Apr 2019 @ 08:33 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Sir John Curtice Demolishes Remain’s Voodoo Polling

Polling guru Sir John Curtice told the BBC this afternoon that, contrary to what the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign are trying to claim, “the weight of the evidence is that there hasn’t been an increase in support” for a second referendum. The only way Remainers can manipulate polls to generate support for a vote is by implying that Remain wouldn’t be on the ballot paper…

mdi-timer 19 March 2019 @ 16:39 19 Mar 2019 @ 16:39 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Fact Check Torpedoes Campbell

BBC fact checkers took Remain fanatic Alastair Campbell to task on BBC Politics Live today. Campbell’s assertion that “there has been a big shift in support for a second referendum” was thoroughly torpedoed by Sir John Curtice’s comprehensive analysis that “there is no consistent evidence of a shift in support for a second referendum.”

Loopy continuity Remainers want to convince the media that their second referendum is viable. It’s not.

mdi-timer 20 September 2018 @ 13:23 20 Sep 2018 @ 13:23 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Curtice and Thrasher on Labour’s Bad Night

John Curtice explains Labour’s poor night: “It’s not clear Labour are anywhere near being in a position to win an early general election… the truth is there isn’t really much for the Labour party to celebrate this morning”.

Michael Thrasher agreed on Sky: “What Labour has failed to do is establish itself as a party that can win the next general election… It’s certainly not a good night for Jeremy Corbyn.”

They’re being generous…

mdi-timer 4 May 2018 @ 07:37 4 May 2018 @ 07:37 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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