Labour’s Upset at John Curtice

Responding to his downcast assessment of Labour’s performance in Wakefield, a Labour source tells HuffPo’s Kevin Schofield:

“People here are furious about him yet again setting the narrative totally unchallenged. There should have been an internal inquiry at the Beeb after his nonsense during the locals & now he’s at it again.”

mdi-timer 24 June 2022 @ 11:30 24 Jun 2022 @ 11:30 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
John Curtice: Labour Not Even On Course to be Largest Party at General Election on These Results

Election expert John Curtice is dampening Labour’s local election results excitement this morning, telling the BBC the party should be “somewhat disappointed” despite their victories in Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet. North London’s remainer lawyer has done well in London elections shocker…

“Yes Labour have certainly made progress as compared with last year, but last year was a very poor performance so four points up on last year was not exactly surprising.

I think therefore this is certainly not a local election performance that in any sense indicates a party that is on course for winning a general election with an overall majority, indeed I’m not sure whether we could even say that at this point it’s guaranteed or necessarily on course even to be the largest party in the next parliament.”

Ahead of the overnight results, psephologists told us a good night for Labour would be gains of over 200, whereas the Tories would need to lose fewer than 350 to salvage any glimmer of hope. According to Curtice again, Labour has currently won net gains of just 40 seats. Though there’s a long way to go yet, with Scotland and Wales having only just begun counting.

As Guido expected, far too large an emphasis is being placed on London by the media – at both parties’ expenses. Labour has in fact pulled off a surprising coup in Cumberland – arguably a more important gain than Wandsworth – taking it from the Tories where they have three MPs, including those representing ‘Workington Man’. They’ve also won seats in Dudley, Derby, Southampton and Chorley. Actual battlegrounds.

Meanwhile not all hope is lost for the Tories. Despite the dreadful national headlines they’ve picked up seats in Nuneaton, West Bromwich, Thurrock, Basildon, Amber Valley and Hartlepool. Long and short is Labour may be overplaying their success in England, and there’s not enough bad news for a 1922 Boris leadership vote. Scotland and Wales will be different stories…

mdi-timer 6 May 2022 @ 07:55 6 May 2022 @ 07:55 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Tories Start 16% Ahead, Curtice Gives Stark Warning

The Tories start the election campaign with a 16 point lead over Labour, who in-turn will find solace from being 9% clear of the Lib Dems. Still lots of undecideds in play for all parties…

However, with First Past the Post and the differences in voting behaviour from region to region, polling expert Sir John Curtice has issued a stark warning to the soaring Tories; predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour.

If the Tories fail to win a majority, Labour will have a much more clear shot at finding coalition bedfellows. Strap in for weeks of psephological speculation…

mdi-timer 30 October 2019 @ 08:45 30 Oct 2019 @ 08:45 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Curtice Prediction

Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on LBC…

“I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election. That makes it difficult for the Tories and Labour to win an overall majority.”

mdi-timer 29 October 2019 @ 14:10 29 Oct 2019 @ 14:10 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Labour Underperforms in By-Election, UKIP Surges

Both major party’s share of the vote fell in Newport West last night, with the Tories falling by 8%, and Labour by 13%. This was a larger fall than expected for Labour after 9 years in opposition. It represents a 2.4% swing from Labour to the Tories…

UKIP outperformed expectations suggesting that the party’s hard turn to the hard right hasn’t cut through to the electorate, or that its voter base simply hasn’t been put off and prioritised sending a signal about Brexit over any other concerns. This should worry both main parties…

The full results were:

  • Labour: 39.6% (-12.7)
  • Conservatives: 31.3% (-8.0)
  • UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)
  • Plaid Cymru: 5.0% (+2.6)
  • Lib Dem: 4.6% (+2.4)
  • Green: 3.9% (+2.8)
  • Renew: 3.7% (+3.7)
  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly: 0.9% (+0.9)
  • SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)
  • Democrats and Veterans: 0.8% (+0.8)
  • For Britain: 0.7% (+0.7)

The only person chuffed with tonight’s voted will be Gerard Batten…

mdi-timer 5 April 2019 @ 08:33 5 Apr 2019 @ 08:33 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Sir John Curtice Demolishes Remain’s Voodoo Polling

Polling guru Sir John Curtice told the BBC this afternoon that, contrary to what the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign are trying to claim, “the weight of the evidence is that there hasn’t been an increase in support” for a second referendum. The only way Remainers can manipulate polls to generate support for a vote is by implying that Remain wouldn’t be on the ballot paper…

mdi-timer 19 March 2019 @ 16:39 19 Mar 2019 @ 16:39 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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