A new poll from Survation shows Labour and the SNP are virtually neck-and-neck in Scotland, with top psephologist Sir John Curtice now claiming every Scottish constituency will be a marginal seat at the next General Election. A YouGov poll last week had the two parties within four points of each other…

Now Survation says this:

• SNP – 37%
• Scottish Labour – 35%
• Conservatives – 17%
• LibDems – 6%

Just a two-point gap at the top…

Curtice says, according to current constituency boundaries, that would give the SNP and Labour 24 seats each:

“There’s certainly is all to play for so far as the representation of Scotland at Westminster at the next general election with potentially important implications for the overall outcome of the next UK General Election…

“Pretty much every seat in Scotland will be a marginal seat, and therefore a relatively small increase in the SNP lead, and all of a sudden those high expectations for Labour would not look quite so realistic. But equally, if the Labour Party could actually overtake the SNP in voting intentions in Scotland, something they’ve not yet managed to do according to any poll, then they could indeed, quite clearly be the dominant party so far as Scotland’s representation at Westminster is concerned.”

Music to Starmer’s ears. He better start learning the names of Anas Sarwar’s colleagues…

The BBC’s Projected National Share of the vote – a model which predicts how all of Britain would vote based on today’s results – gives Labour a 9-point lead:

• Conservative – 26%
• Labour – 35%
• Liberal Democrats – 20%
• Others – 19%

John Curtice says this would be “perhaps just enough” to hand Starmer the keys to Number 10, assuming it translated to a 4.5% swing in Westminster…

Polls have opened for local elections across the country, and as usual, both parties are furiously spinning the best and worst case scenarios. The Conservatives particularly pessimistic – at least in front of the cameras. Last night at Onward’s anniversary reception, Rishi Sunak warned the Tories face “a tough night” after the “box set drama” politics of his predecessors, and the party should expect “good councillors” to lose their seats. CCHQ are briefing out potential losses of up to 1,000 seats by tomorrow…

Labour, meanwhile, claim they’re hoping to gain around 400 seats, adding that an 8-point lead would be their best local result since 1997. Sir John Curtice points out in the Times that they actually need a double-digit lead to show Starmer is on track for Downing Street in 2024. Ed Miliband won a 7-point lead in 2012, and look how that turned out…

Electoral Calculus’s analysis is less pessimistic about the Tories’ chances than CCHQ. Their model predicts the Tories will lose around 258 seats, with Labour gaining 400 on a 5% lead:

Counting is expected to continue well into tomorrow morning, so don’t expect a clear result overnight…

Responding to his downcast assessment of Labour’s performance in Wakefield, a Labour source tells HuffPo’s Kevin Schofield:

“People here are furious about him yet again setting the narrative totally unchallenged. There should have been an internal inquiry at the Beeb after his nonsense during the locals & now he’s at it again.”

Election expert John Curtice is dampening Labour’s local election results excitement this morning, telling the BBC the party should be “somewhat disappointed” despite their victories in Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet. North London’s remainer lawyer has done well in London elections shocker…

“Yes Labour have certainly made progress as compared with last year, but last year was a very poor performance so four points up on last year was not exactly surprising.

I think therefore this is certainly not a local election performance that in any sense indicates a party that is on course for winning a general election with an overall majority, indeed I’m not sure whether we could even say that at this point it’s guaranteed or necessarily on course even to be the largest party in the next parliament.”

Ahead of the overnight results, psephologists told us a good night for Labour would be gains of over 200, whereas the Tories would need to lose fewer than 350 to salvage any glimmer of hope. According to Curtice again, Labour has currently won net gains of just 40 seats. Though there’s a long way to go yet, with Scotland and Wales having only just begun counting.

As Guido expected, far too large an emphasis is being placed on London by the media – at both parties’ expenses. Labour has in fact pulled off a surprising coup in Cumberland – arguably a more important gain than Wandsworth – taking it from the Tories where they have three MPs, including those representing ‘Workington Man’. They’ve also won seats in Dudley, Derby, Southampton and Chorley. Actual battlegrounds.

Meanwhile not all hope is lost for the Tories. Despite the dreadful national headlines they’ve picked up seats in Nuneaton, West Bromwich, Thurrock, Basildon, Amber Valley and Hartlepool. Long and short is Labour may be overplaying their success in England, and there’s not enough bad news for a 1922 Boris leadership vote. Scotland and Wales will be different stories…