Labour Underperforms in By-Election, UKIP Surges

Both major party’s share of the vote fell in Newport West last night, with the Tories falling by 8%, and Labour by 13%. This was a larger fall than expected for Labour after 9 years in opposition. It represents a 2.4% swing from Labour to the Tories…

UKIP outperformed expectations suggesting that the party’s hard turn to the hard right hasn’t cut through to the electorate, or that its voter base simply hasn’t been put off and prioritised sending a signal about Brexit over any other concerns. This should worry both main parties…

The full results were:

  • Labour: 39.6% (-12.7)
  • Conservatives: 31.3% (-8.0)
  • UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)
  • Plaid Cymru: 5.0% (+2.6)
  • Lib Dem: 4.6% (+2.4)
  • Green: 3.9% (+2.8)
  • Renew: 3.7% (+3.7)
  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly: 0.9% (+0.9)
  • SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)
  • Democrats and Veterans: 0.8% (+0.8)
  • For Britain: 0.7% (+0.7)

The only person chuffed with tonight’s voted will be Gerard Batten…

Sir John Curtice Demolishes Remain’s Voodoo Polling

Polling guru Sir John Curtice told the BBC this afternoon that, contrary to what the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign are trying to claim, “the weight of the evidence is that there hasn’t been an increase in support” for a second referendum. The only way Remainers can manipulate polls to generate support for a vote is by implying that Remain wouldn’t be on the ballot paper…

Fact Check Torpedoes Campbell

BBC fact checkers took Remain fanatic Alastair Campbell to task on BBC Politics Live today. Campbell’s assertion that “there has been a big shift in support for a second referendum” was thoroughly torpedoed by Sir John Curtice’s comprehensive analysis that “there is no consistent evidence of a shift in support for a second referendum.”

Loopy continuity Remainers want to convince the media that their second referendum is viable. It’s not.

Curtice and Thrasher on Labour’s Bad Night

John Curtice explains Labour’s poor night: “It’s not clear Labour are anywhere near being in a position to win an early general election… the truth is there isn’t really much for the Labour party to celebrate this morning”.

Michael Thrasher agreed on Sky: “What Labour has failed to do is establish itself as a party that can win the next general election… It’s certainly not a good night for Jeremy Corbyn.”

They’re being generous…

Curtice on Fiscal Policy

John Curtice on fiscal policy:

“Attitudes to taxation and spending are basically counter-cyclical. If a government comes in and tries to reduce spending and taxation, after a while people will get worried about the state of public services. If a government increases taxation and public spending, after a while they’ll get concerned about increasing taxation…. In as much as there are lots of ideologues out there who think the state should be this proportion of GDP, they’re all wrong. Because the public’s view is counter-cyclical to the recent experience. It’s basically impossible to satisfy the public.”

John Curtice on Labour

John Curtice provides some context:

“Labour has lost this election as badly as Gordon Brown did in 2010.”

UKIP Votes Turning Blue

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, says….

“The UKIP vote is going to the Tories. That’s the story of the first week of the campaign.”

Labour Will Lose 50 to 100 Seats

‘Shy’ Tories Actually Just Busy, Labour Voters Home More

It is often said half-teasingly that canvassers and pollsters are more likely to meet Labour voters than Tories because Tory voters are still at work. Now there is empirical evidence for the claim. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the only pollster with his reputation intact after he called the 2015 election, says there is no such thing as “shy” Tories skewing polls, they are just “busy“. Curtice’s study found that if polls were based on people who answered the door on a first visit, Labour would be six points ahead. If polls were based on those who needed three to six visits before answering, the Tories had an 11 point lead. His conclusion: Labour voters were more likely to be at home rather than out at work.

“Conservatives are just simply more difficult to get hold of. There is an availability bias. People who you can get hold of first time round, who say, ‘oh yes come in’ are disproportionately Labour voters. The people you can easily get hold of are not representative.”

As the old joke goes, the Tory voters really were still at work…

EU Referendum Poll of Polls

eu-ref-by-party

John Curtice, the pollster who supervised the general election exit poll, has a paper out for the National Centre for Social Research onWho Supports and Who Opposes EU Membership. Based on the last four polls it puts the Remainers ahead.

graduate-eu

Remainers enjoy a strong lead with younger, graduates and those on higher incomes. Leavers enjoy a lead with older, non-graduates on lower incomes.

age-eu

The good news for Leavers is that election results show over and over again that young hipsters don’t tend to vote. Oldies do. Game on…

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Quote of the Day

Peter Mandelson tells Emma Barnett…

“I think that Jeremy Corbyn himself should search his conscience and ask himself whether he’s the best person to lead the Labour Party into the general election with the best chance of success for the party.”

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