This morning saw a major blow to the Tories’ London mayoral hopes as it came to light the comms agency 5654 has parted ways with Shaun Bailey’s campaign. The agency, co-headed by Priti Patel’s former SpAd and Vote Leave veteran, James Starkie, had been doing an admirable job of polishing the campaign, injecting certain elements of the Vote Leave playbook and having a go at recreating the Tories’ 2019 Topham Geurin video magic. Clearly no amount of Conservative creative spin can rescue their candidate…
Guido learns the mood inside the camp is now “bleak”, as the party stood the campaign down at the end of last year. They’ve essentially run out of donor support to keep the London ship afloat; instead focusing resources on Andy Street and Ben Houchen’s campaigns who have much better chances of success in May. In the words of one source, Bailey’s campaign has been put into “special measures”…
The best the Shaun Bailey campaign is hoping for is to outperform Zac Goldsmith’s 43.2% – there are no illusions inside the bunker that they will beat Sadiq – even that threshold seems unlikely. Guido understands that there is no campaign appetite to come up with new policy of their own, and will merely focus on firefighting potential tax rises as their priority. A CCHQ source relays Tory frustration with the campaign’s refusal to go in hard on crime, due to Camp Bailey’s fear that banging on about it will scare off LibDem second preferences in inner London and places like Richmond. A strategy that will likely see outer London Tories living in the “doughnut“, who are angry about Sadiq’s record on crime, not bother to turn out on election day…
UPDATE: A Conservative Party spokesperson says:
“Operational and fundraising decisions are a matter for the Shaun Bailey campaign, which continues to have our full support. In no way has the campaign been put into special measures. Shaun Bailey will make a fantastic Mayor of London, and will start fixing Sadiq Khan’s abysmal failures on tackling crime, building affordable homes and managing TfL’s finances on day one.”
With City Hall in financial chaos and the mayor threatening to cut 3,600 police amid riots, Shaun Bailey has less than a year to sort out his public image to pose a proper challenge to Sadiq. Guido understands amidst staff turnover, the Tories’ mayoral campaign has brought in new comms outfit 5654 and company partner James Starkie to refocus the campaign. Starkie recently left government after working as chief of staff to Priti Patel, previously of Dominic Raab’s leadership campaign…
5654 – who proclaim specialisation in helping clients “to earn a reputation” – have been brought in by campaign director Ben Mallet, himself only poached in February as part of a Team Shaun top team overhaul. The campaign will have to scoop up almost all of Rory’s abandoned supporters to have a hope of catching up with Sadiq…
The Tory contenders are gearing up for what might well become the most protracted Tory leadership contest ever – it could be another 8 months before the race officially starts if May clings on ’til December. That hasn’t stopped the candidates from starting to get their teams together already…
Dominic Raab has assembled a number of key Vote Leave figures behind him – James Starkie joined Team Raab last month, Beth Armstrong was Raab’s SpAd as Brexit Secretary but stuck with her boss after his resignation. Arbuthnot Banking Group have donated £44,259 to Raab to cover her salary for 6 months. Both are former SpAds for Michael Gove…
Spinning for him is the formidable Paul Stephenson, Vote Leave’s former Director of Comms and co-founder of Hanbury Strategy. Officially, Stephenson only has an informal advisory role…
A number of MPs are also already said to be on board the Raab train, including former Brexit Minister Suella Braverman. Raab is said to have provisionally lined up former ministers Sir Hugo Swire and Shailesh Vara to propose and second him. Braverman and Vara both resigned alongside Raab last November…
Raab’s main problem is that he and Boris will likely be fighting over the same MPs and the same endorsements from the Brexit-supporting press. Here’s how his other key stats compare:
Social media support: Ready for Raab has 1.7k followers, Raab himself has 44.1k followers and his Facebook has 3.4k.
Mainstream media support: None as yet, though Stephenson is close to the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman. In the last few weeks Raab’s had a few op-eds for The Telegraph and the Mail on Sunday.
ConservativeHome members survey: 18% (2nd)
YouGov public recognition: 19% (7th)
PaddyPower odds: 9/1 (4th)
Guido hears Michael Gove has signed up Vote Leave alumnus James Starkie as his new media SpAd. Starkie was a soldier of the referendum, he ran regional press for the Leave campaign before joining Portland to work on their Brexit unit. He replaces Lee Cain who has gone to Number 10. Starkie is a true believer, good to see a new SpAd appointed who actually voted Leave…
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