Jarvis Wins South Yorkshire Mayor Selection, Will He Stand Down?

New Labour rules say MPs cannot hold another elected office. Will he quit parliament?

Corbynistas Stitch Up Dan Jarvis

The Corbynistas on Labour’s NEC have royally stitched up Dan Jarvis, ruling that he cannot remain as an MP if he becomes South Yorkshire mayor. Jarvis threw his hat in for the role a couple of months back, tacitly supported by the regional Labour office. He has been lobbying to become mayor of the whole of Yorkshire, a non-existent position that Sajid Javid keeps ruling out. As one Labour source put it: Dan is running for a role he doesn’t want in the hope of getting a different job that doesn’t exist, while aiming to keep his current job, which he now cannot do”.

Former Labour minister Richard Caborn also wanted the job – Guido hears he was kept off the shortlist last month after being grilled by the NEC over his dodgy lobbying past, including the time he was banned from parliament. The other candidate to make the final two is Ben Curran, a Corbyn-friendly councillor who says he will be a a “Mayor for the many”. If Action Dan wins the nomination on Friday, will he quit as an MP or withdraw from the mayoralty race?

Dan Jarvis Confuses Debt and Deficit

It is often said that Dan Jarvis – not generally considered Westminster’s greatest thinker – doesn’t have the brain to be the next Labour leader. He has tried to dispel those fears today with a 5,000 word essay about his vision for Britain in the New Statesman. What could go wrong?

Action Dan’s big idea is a typically uninspiring “one-off wealth tax” which he says would help bring down the deficit”. Except, as Lucy Powell points out, he means “debt“:

Is this the best Labour moderates can do? Best hope for Jarvis is that no one can be bothered to read his dire snoozefest of a manifesto…

Who Are You? Labour’s Unknown Leadership Hopefuls

If tomorrow Corbyn has led his party to a by-election double disaster, speculation will turn to who will replace him. Since all those new £3 members will want another left-winger rather than a Blair-era tarnished figure, YouGov have taken a look at the hopefuls. They found that voters have never heard of them…

To be fair Guido had never heard of Rebecca Long-Bailey until a merciless Brillo took her apart, she is apparently the great next hope of the Corbynistas and known to just 5% of the public. The truth is only politicians who have been around for a decade or two are known by more than half the public. Even Tom Watson is known to just a third of voters…

For the moderates Dan Jarvis (11%) and Sir Keir Starmer (19%) just about manage to get double digit recognition. The ambitious Sadiq Khan (74%) has the highest name recognition…

Jarvis: Not Racist To Be Concerned About Immigration

Fight Poverty, Not Ratios

Dan Jarvis is getting a lot of media play ahead of his Westminster Hall debate this afternoon highlighting the government’s shrinking of the cross-departmental civil service Child Poverty Unit from 23 staff down to 10. Jarvis argues that

“We are living through the biggest increase in relative child poverty in a generation. The Institute for Fiscal Studies predict that without changing course we will see a 50% rise by 2020.”

Sounds horrific, child poverty is going to rise by 50% in 3 years! Stop. Look around. Infant mortality has fallen, most health indicators are improving, even childhood obesity has peaked. How can child poverty be set to increase by 50%?

It is a ratio, not reality. As the economy strengthens middle and upper incomes recover at a faster rate than lower incomes – in part because of an unlimited supply of cheap labour from the EU – the ratio between the two rises, so the child poverty ratio rises. Even as household incomes rise for the less well off as well…

The creation of the Child Poverty Act (2010) was one of the last ideological acts of a Labour government that knew it was likely to lose the general election held two months later. It attempted to legislate against inequality, against people getting richer. The numbers show that absolute poverty, real poverty, where you can’t afford necessities, is falling as worklessness falls. Relative poverty, where you can’t afford as much as richer people, is not really falling – this is not a problem. Child poverty is not about ratios. Abolishing the Whitehall bean counters and focusing on work-based paths out of poverty is the way forward.

Labour talk a good game on poverty – it remains a fact that the unemployment rate always increases under Labour governments, this can have the effect of flattering the ratios. The best real child poverty counter-measure is working to support your family. No amount of redistribution, no ratios, no welfare measure can surpass the effectiveness of bringing home a wage to support your family.

Hedge Funds’ Dan Banks Another £20,000 From City Tycoon

jarvis1

Dan Jarvis really doesn’t like it when you ask him about his hedge fund backers – trousering cash from City tycoons doesn’t fit with his carefully crafted image as a man-of-the-people who can unite Labour. Well, Action Dan has just banked another £20,000 cheque from Martin Taylor, a shady Mayfair hedgie and anti-Corbyn Labour moderate. Jarvis has had almost £60,000 off Taylor and a total of nearly £100,000 from City and business donors over the last few months, which is a lot of money for a lowly backbench MP. Ammo for the Corbynistas when Jarvis ends up spending hedge fund cash on his future leadership bid…

Action Dan’s Wealth Tax Plan

Dan Jarvis has written a supportive foreword for a Fabian pamphlet backing a “one off” wealth tax aimed at the rich. The pamphlet attacks hedge funds for their high rates of return available only to rich investors. The left-wing authors have found a new pot of gold to replace the middle-class terrifying mansion tax – which was basically a tax on homeowners in the South East where family homes easily exceed £2 million. The Tories mail-shotted the hell out of the issue to homeowners in the general election…

The evil Fabians’ plan is to levy the one-off tax on those with assets over £10 million or who use “aggressive tax avoidance”. Those with over £20 million in assets will suffer an even bigger expropriation of their wealth. The authors of this plan think this will avoid losing votes as it will hit only the 0.1%. Only the likes of Guido apparently think the super-rich have suffered enough…

The problems with the idea – apart from the immorality of confiscating justly acquired wealth arbitrarily – are manifest and obvious. The type of people who use aggressive tax avoidance strategies (a) don’t admit they do, (b) won’t stay around to see themselves financially gouged. The idea that people who go to the trouble of parking their money offshore will have a change of heart is laughably naive. It will also hit entrepreneurs who build successful companies which bring jobs and taxes to Britain. Why would an entrepreneur choose to base herself in a country that punishes her success?

Why is Jarvis aligning himself with such a crazy, job-destroying, entrepreneur-deterring, unworkable left-wing policy? Could it be he wants to be able to defend himself with a policy shield in a leadership contest when the subject of his donations from hedge-fund tycoons comes up?

Labour Leadership Rivals Rake in Huge Donations

The Corbynista line this morning is that Jezza is safe from a coup, several “hostile” MPs agree with Tom Watson that he should be “given time” and judged on the next set of local elections in 12 months. Knives are being put away yet potential challengers’ coffers are being filled…

It’s notable that Tristram Hunt has raked in £85,000 of donations from Blairite sources. He’s taken a wedge off Blair backer Lord David Sainsbury (for whom Hunt used to work as a SpAd), Stoke City FC chairman Peter Coates and mega-bucks private equity adviser Trevor Chinn. That is a huge amount to take in for one month…

Chinn has also given money to Dan Jarvis, a much mooted leadership rival who has been coining it recently. Jarvis also received £12,500 last month from major Labour donor Peter Hearn, who tried in vain to bankroll Corbyn’s opponents last year. That’s on top of his hedge fund cash that he really doesn’t like talking about.

Margaret Hodge has loads in the bank though it helps that she’s also making £5,000 per speech at the moment. If the coup is delayed for a year that is a long time to raise a war chest…

UPDATE: Allies of Tristram say several of the donations registered this month were actually received in previous months, but had to be re-registered due to an administrative error. He is slowly and steadily amassing a lot of cash…

IFS’s Damning Verdict On Osborne’s Budget

ifs copy

On last year’s £27 billion OBR windfall:

What Mr Osborne didn’t tell us yesterday is that rather than finding £27 billion the OBR lost £56 billion down that same sofa. As it happens, the total loss to the sofa across the two fiscal events is £29 billion.

That loss largely arises from changes in assumptions about future productivity growth feeding in to lower economic growth over the rest of the parliament. If the OBR is right about that we should all be worried. This will lead to lower wages and living standards, not just lower tax revenues for the Treasury.”

On Osborne’s golden public finance rules:

“Mr Osborne had three fiscal rules – the welfare cap; the rule which said debt should fall as a fraction of national income every year; and the rule to get to budget surplus by 2019-20. He broke his welfare cap in November, and it is now broken by a bigger margin. He told us yesterday he is on course to break his debt rule by the end of this month. The surplus rule is the last rule standing.”

On that same subject Dan Jarvis has a good line that “I’ve had goldfish that have lasted longer than Osborne’s rules”….

Jarvis Delivers “Danifesto”

RUN-DAN-JARVIS

The Twitterati reaction is mixed:

Action Dan the Hedge Funds’ Man

The mysterious hedge fund manager who gave Ed Miliband £600,000 before the election appears to be bankrolling Labour’s next great hope, Dan Jarvis. Martin Taylor was the shady Mayfair hedgie who was outed as one of Miliband’s biggest donors last year. A “Martin Taylor” has written a £16,800 cheque to “support Jarvis’ office and work as an MP”. Both Jarvis and his ‘press officer’ have declined Guido’s repeated requests for comment over the last five days. Labour sources cattily suggest that Jarvis – not considered Westminster’s greatest thinker – needs the money for a policy unit. Trousering a hefty wedge from a City tycoon doesn’t exactly go with his carefully crafted image as a man-of-the-people who can unite the Labour Party.

Guido hears various other Labour moderates have also been meeting potential City backers in recent months. When the war comes, expect the crowd-funded People’s Momentum to make a stink about Dan Jarvis and his hedge fund backers…

Labour Leadership Beauty Contest at Fabians

It will be worth keeping an eye on the Fabian New Year conference on Saturday, where several of those tipped to be the next Labour leader are vying for grassroots support. On a panel discussion titled “Future Left”, left-wing darling Lisa Nandy will debate action man Dan Jarvis and ambitious North London idol Sir Keir Starmer on “how Britain is changing and how the left should respond”. All three have been strongly linked to post-Corbyn leadership bids. 

Meanwhile Chuka will discuss Labour’s “vision in the 2020s”, by which time he might have stumped up the courage to run. Stella Creasy will debate with Owen Jones on “Winning battles, winning the war”. Labour MPs are expecting the event to be box office. Corbyn’s ears will be ringing by the time he turns up to deliver the keynote speech…

What Does Dan Jarvis Think?

On the left, Company Commander Dan Jarvis. On the right, Lieutenant Colonel Tom Tugendhat, who has written this remarkable letter to Jeremy Corbyn published by the Sun about Seumas Milne’s slur that British soldiers in Afghanistan were “occupiers“:

Dear Jeremy,

I am writing today with regards to reported comments made by the Labour Party’s Director of Strategy and Communication, Seumas Milne. The Sun newspaper reported this morning that Mr Milne had dismissed well-founded and valid concerns about equipment shortages as a ‘red herring’, instead suggesting that British soldiers themselves were to blame for dying in Afghanistan ‘because they are occupiers in another Muslim country where they’re not wanted’.

Not only are these remarks ignorant and ill-informed, they are deeply disrespectful to those who served in Afghanistan at the time and to the friends and families of those who lost their lives in the conflict.  Furthermore, and perhaps most absurdly, they recognise the authority of the Taliban, violent extremists who murdered thousands across the country, as more valid than the lawful government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the UN recognised, democratically elected government of the Afghan people.  More sadly still, it ignores the courage of our allies in the Afghan Armed Forces alongside whom we served and in support of whom too many died.

This is not an isolated incident. Not only has Mr Milne suggested 9/11 was America’s fault and appeared to support armed resistance against British troops in Iraq, he is also on record claiming that the murder of Lee Rigby, an innocent man murdered on a London street, wasn’t “terrorism in the normal sense” because Mr Rigby was a member of the Armed Forces. By extension, am I to understand that this means that Mr Milne believes that I and other former servicemen and women on both sides of the House are also valid targets because of our records of military service?

You have spoken eloquently about wanting to see a ‘kinder politics’ and I welcome this.  It would make our county a more inclusive democracy. This is your opportunity to lead by example. As the leader of the Labour Party and Her Majesty’s Opposition, I urge you to consider the implication of having people on your team whose views support violent extremists rather than democrats.  Our history is littered with despots whom British soldiers, sailors and airmen have fought against to secure the liberties we enjoy today, it seems sad that such anti-democratic elements should find voice in one of our important national political parties. I know that many on all sides of the House wish it were not so.

I hope you will take this opportunity to condemn Mr Milne’s remarks.  To stay silent would be wrong and may be seen as endorsing the views of those who choose violence instead of political debate.  Neither we, nor the Afghan servicemen I was proud to serve alongside, were occupiers.  We were both doing what I know you would support – serving the lawful wishes of the democratically elected governments of the countries we each served.  To forget that would be an insult to the  memories of our brave serviceman and women and to treat democracy as an inconvenience when it is, in truth, the sole legitimate source of power.

I would appreciate a response at your earliest convenience indicating what steps you intend to take.

Yours,

Thomas Tugendhat MBE MP

What does Jarvis, who served with Tugendhat in Afghanistan, think about the comments of his party’s Director of Communications?

Photo via The Sun/Armed Forces Learning Resources

Danbo Says No: Jarvis Not Running For Labour Leader

A source close to the ex-Para tells the Mirror he’s out of the race:

“Dan wants to help Labour in any way he can but he needs to put his children first.”

That sound you can hear is 2020 Tory hopefuls breathing a sigh of relief…

UPDATE: Jarvis speaks:

“I’m ready to serve in that rebuilding process as part of the Labour team. But I can’t do that as leader at this moment and I won’t be putting my name forward in the coming leadership contest.

It’s not the right time for my family. My eldest kids had a very tough time when they lost their mum and I don’t want them to lose their dad. I need some space for them, my wife and our youngest child right now, and I wouldn’t have it as leader…

We must never go into an election again giving communities like Carlisle and Pudsey the impression that the Tories were more serious than us about spreading wealth across the country.

We should equally ask how we allowed ourselves to be perceived as not on the side of wealth creators. Never again can we allow ourselves to be painted as having a problem with people eager to work hard, get on and succeed. They should know that Labour will always be their champion.”



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Jeremy Corbyn told by veteran Jewish MP Margaret Hodge…

“You’re a f***ing anti-aemite and a racist”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Undead UKIP Poll Rise Terrifies Tories Undead UKIP Poll Rise Terrifies Tories
Marr’s May Monopoly Marr’s May Monopoly
CCHQ Begs Association Chairmen CCHQ Begs Association Chairmen
Poll: Voters 2 to 1 for No Deal Poll: Voters 2 to 1 for No Deal
Paul Mason Reported to Police Paul Mason Reported to Police
Etonian Free Cabinet Etonian Free Cabinet
Tory MP Puts Letter In to Brady Tory MP Puts Letter In to Brady
Lord Carrington Lord Carrington
Poll: May’s Deal or No Deal? Poll: May’s Deal or No Deal?
Labour’s Chequers Survival Kit Labour’s Chequers Survival Kit
Whips’ Patsies in Full Whips’ Patsies in Full
Tories Will Lose Votes if They Cross Brexit Red Lines Tories Will Lose Votes if They Cross Brexit Red Lines
Remain Used Same Spending Tactics as Leave But Far Worse Remain Used Same Spending Tactics as Leave But Far Worse