Owen Campaign’s Strategic Divide

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Owen Smith is particularly desperate to try and win Wales and shore up his vote on home turf to avoid personal humiliation. When it comes to events and phone banking his campaign is very Welsh-centric – he’s focusing on South Wales disproportionately. Make that a hell of a lot of effort for a small part of the electorate.

In the latest of many South Wales campaign events Owen made a “keynote” speech in Rhondda yesterday to a handful of people – he just can’t break out of the Valleys. If you look at his campaign pictures (see below) from the event they are all tight on him because the crowd was so small.

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Truth is he’s not liked much in Wales. Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones has been silent and no Welsh minister has backed him. His own Pontypridd Assembly Member and Welsh Government Counsel General, Mick Antoniw, is backing Corbyn. Former Pontypridd AM and Welsh environment minister Jane Davidson, who knew Owen and worked with him closely when he was first elected, is also backing Corbyn and tweeting Owen attacks. Reportedly the only CLP in Wales to nominate him was fixed

In private the campaign knows it has lost and fears it may lose by over 60% to 40%. His campaign manager Dugher is said to be arguing for a strategy shift to a tough bare-knuckled fight, hitting Corbyn hard, perhaps having learnt his lesson from managing Andy Burnham’s disastrous soft-left leadership campaign. The whole idea of projecting Smith as a “competent Corbynista” has been disastrous from the off because nobody believed thechildishly transparent lie. Owen Smith does not however want to tack to the centre and tell the membership hard-truths, because he needs to “protect my brand” for the future. Oh boyo…

Could this dilemma within the campaign explain the vitriol of that Dan Hodges polemic on Sunday against spineless, incoherent, incompetent Owen? Hodges is close to Dugher…

UPDATE: A source gets in touch to clarify that initially Dugher was for all the full-on lefty campaign because he thought that’s where he/Andy screwed up last time, “If Andy had been more left-wing Jeremy wouldn’t have had space to emerge. Problem is it’s the right strategy for twelve months ago. Doesn’t work now Corbyn is out of the bottle which they now accept.”

mdi-timer 23 August 2016 @ 15:00 23 Aug 2016 @ 15:00 mdi-comment Comments
Friday Caption Contest (Don’t Pussy Out of Your Bet Edition)

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Dan Hodges with the Downing Street cat. Entries in the comments please…

mdi-timer 29 July 2016 @ 13:16 29 Jul 2016 @ 13:16 mdi-comment Comments
Which Remainer are you? Post-Brexit Edition

You can take the pre-referendum quiz here

mdi-timer 19 July 2016 @ 16:13 19 Jul 2016 @ 16:13 mdi-comment Comments
Fallon Welches on £1,000 Piers Morgan Bet

Both Michael Fallon and John Whittingdale made pre-referendum bets that, should Cameron lose the vote, he wouldn’t resign. Now Piers is calling in his bets, promising to donate the winnings to charity. Pay up, Fallon…

People occasionally ask Guido, with a sense of foreboding, when will the pundit and polling analyst Dan Hodges do his naked Brexit run? Guido will be negotiating the time and location with the sagacious streaker this week. Stay tuned…

UPDATE: Piers wants Guido to remind Whitto as well:

mdi-timer 18 July 2016 @ 09:48 18 Jul 2016 @ 09:48 mdi-comment Comments
Dan Explains His Streak

mdi-timer 7 January 2016 @ 15:58 7 Jan 2016 @ 15:58 mdi-comment Comments
Hodges “Streaks” Down Whitehall

The going was wet and it was a dark dawn for the “Dan Hodges Streak Down Whitehall Charity Stakes”, the forfeit for having lost his bet that UKIP would get less than 6% of the vote in the general election:

Ladbrokes were there and took £20 from Guido that he would not complete at 25/1:

There was a bit of a “Stewards Inquiry” given there was no sign of either a Farage mask or promised Hodges’ bare arse…

Despite Hodges refusing to sing “Land of Hope and Glory” at the finish, Guido paid up anyway and it was £20 to Elizabeth’s Legacy of Hope to add to another £100 bet that Hodges lost to Guido – 243 days ago. Hodges promises he is giving that betting loss to the charity as well… 

mdi-timer 7 January 2016 @ 08:48 7 Jan 2016 @ 08:48 mdi-comment Comments
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