YouGov not prompting for the Brexit Party in this morning’s bombshell poll when it is polling second in Westminster voting intentions and won the Euros has riled a lot of their supporters. Anthony Wells has written an explainer and makes this justification:
“…like many pollsters we overstated support for the Brexit Party, putting them at 37% compared to the 31.6% they actually achieved in Great Britain. Over the next few weeks, we will also be looking at the possible causes of that overstatement, and whether there was something to do with turnout, undecided voters or our weighting or sampling scheme that led to us having too many Brexit voters in our final poll.”
However, it’s worth remembering their final poll for the 2017 General Election predicted a 7% gap between the Tories and Labour, in the election itself this shrunk by the same margin to just 2%. YouGov may well have tweaked their turnout models afterwards, Guido doesn’t recall them doing anything as drastic as moving a major party into ‘Other’…
Either way, remember Cleggmania? Surges have a tendency to fall back. Even so, the Brexit Party outpolling the two main parties of the twentieth century is a real tribute to the popular appeal of Corbyn and May. The outcome of the Tory leadership race will determine the long term sustainability of the Brexit Party…
Is that tiny blue uptick on the right hand edge of this graph the first sign of the long awaited swing to the Tories reportedly forecast by Lynton Crosby? This is the six month rolling 5 day average of all the pollsters* – based on UK Polling Report data. The uptick is a result of the last seven YouGov polls showing three Tory leads, three draws and only one Labour lead. Pollster Anthony Wells reckons “something may indeed be afoot”…
Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll is awaited, more eagerly than usual, for confirmation of a trend. Blip or shift?
UPDATE 22:30: False dawn, maybe?
YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour ahead by four, their biggest lead since December: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
— Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) March 5, 2015
*Ashcroft, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos-Mori, Opinium, Populus, Survation, TNS-BMRB and YouGov.