Corbynista Councillor: Kick Them All Out

Corbynista Councillor Sakina Sheikh had the tricky job of defending Labour’s double standards over the expulsion of Alastair Campbell on All Out Politics this morning. When challenged by Andrew Cooper about Labour grandees like Charles Clarke, Bob Ainsworth, Anji Hunter, and Lance Price who all publicly said they also did not vote for the Labour Party, but are yet to face expulsion, she doubled down:

“They will be [expelled]… If they have said publicly that they have supported another candidate of another party in the elections, the rulebook is black and white so I have no doubt that that will be the next steps.”

Over to you, Labour Compliance Office…

UK’s Former Chief Civil Servant Endorses Liberal Democrats

If Brexiteers needed any more proof that the senior echelons of the civil service are fanatically pro-Remain, former Cabinet Secretary Gus O’Donnell was on hand to provide it this morning in The Times with a gushing endorsement of the Lib Dems. O’Donnell says it’s “deeply disappointing and very annoying” that the split Remain vote could lead to the Brexit Party doing “extremely well”, he says he will be voting Lib Dem and “urges all those who support Remain to do the same”. Telling, but hardly surprising, that the UK’s most senior civil servant under three successive Prime Ministers is coming out with such a full-throated endorsement of Remain…

David Cameron’s hapless former Downing Street head of strategy and embittered Remainer Andrew Cooper has also announced that he’s backing the Lib Dems. Cooper did sit for the Tories in the Lords, he’s now joined Heseltine on the naughty step with the whip suspended. With him on board the Lib Dems are guaranteed electoral success…

3AM Eternal for the Bitter Pollster of Remain

In the dark hours of last night the Remain campaign’s pollster – who told David Cameron to go to bed happy on referendum night because he had won by 10 points – can’t restrain his bitterness. Accusing Boris of courting “fascism”. Juvenile analysis as usual from Andrew Cooper.

Andrew Cooper’s Misplaced Arrogance

Andrew Cooper is the PM’s pollster and he is fanatically pro-EU. His Twitter feed is something to behold.

Yes, Guido remembers that it was Andrew Cooper’s polling firm Populus which built a super-clever model of all the polling data for the general election and concluded there was just a 0.5% of a Tory majority. This may have had something to do with his pique at being kicked off the Tory campaign by Lynton Crosby…

Half the country is stupid…

Then & Now: Cameron “Paving the Road from Ankara to Brussels”

Turkish accession to the EU is becoming an issue in the referendum debate. Polling shows it deeply worries voters, which is why UKIP devoted an entire Party Political Broadcast to the subject. It has become a dangerous issue for the Remainers’ chief campaigner because Dave is on the record as supporting Turkey joining the EU. 

When the Prime Minister visited Turkey he gave a speech where he said: “This is something I feel very strongly, very passionately about… I want us to pave the road from Ankara to Brussels…”. He even drew a parallel between Turkey and Britain, initially prevented by France’s veto from joining the common market in 1973: “We know what it’s like to be shut out of the club. But we also know that these things can change.”

Turkey joining the club is not popular with the voters and no doubt his Euro-fanatic pollster Andrew Cooper has told him to change his tune for public consumption. With the referendum coming Cameron’s doner U-Turn, will voters believe it is for real?

The “Pitiless Empiricism” of Elections

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Guido has said this before and he will say it again: if the Tories lose this election a large part of the blame belongs to the former Downing Street pollster Andrew Cooper, who claimed that UKIP were a “flash in the pan”. Here is the evidence in hard data form from YouGov; 5 percentage points of the 2010 Tory vote has gone to UKIP, in exchange for 3 percentage points of the LibDem vote. Pollsters and statisticians can argue about what might have been, the data suggests that the Cameroon positioning which claimed the Conservatives could win from the centre has cost at least 2 percentage points. The number of former LibDems wooed is fewer than the number of former Tories spurned and now voting UKIP.

Cooper’s “peak UKIP” theory does not appear to have been anything more than a theory. This YouGov data, based on re-interviewing 31,210 voters polled in 2010, shows Cooper’s hunch that UKIP were a “flash in the pan” which would fade away and return to the blue column was just a hunch, motivated by an ideological preference for centrist modernisation rather than any campaigning logic. Cooper was once lionised by the metropolitan commentariat – in 2011 Matthew D’Ancona claimed that his “great gift to the Conservative Party has not been liberal ideology, but a pitiless empiricism”. A real judgement based on pitiless empiricism is about to be delivered by the voters. Guido suspects that Cooper’s years as Downing Street’s Director of Strategy will be seen as wasted years when the modernisers’ distaste for conservative instincts was over indulged at the expense of a strategy to both secure the base and gain new voters. An arrogant and recklessly rushed modernisation has fatally split the right-of-centre vote.

Blair on People Not Giving a Fig for Politics

Andrew Cooper quotes Tony Blair…

“The single hardest thing for a practising politician to understand, is that most people, most of the time, don’t give politics a first thought all day long.” 

+ + + Andrew Cooper New Director of Strategy + + ++ + + Former SDP Man Turned Pollster + + +

Steve Hilton will be happy. Will be confirmed tonight.

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Quote of the Day

Responding to Corbyn’s statement that the US should have arrested ISIS leader, al-Baghdadi, John Mann bluntly tweeted:

Baghdadi blew himself up with a suicide belt. An arrest might have been slightly difficult in these circumstances.”

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