Bridget Phillipson is on the morning round giving a timeline of events for the Rayner blow-up:
Phillipson did not say if Starmer knew Rayner had underpaid tax and when, nor did she dispute the implication that Starmer was told about the tax element on Monday when the new advice came in. Jacob Rees-Mogg points out that Rayner could have given a statement to the Commons under parliamentary privilege at any point had she wished to…
There wasn’t much in the way of an impassioned defence of Rayner from Phillipson despite cabinet ministers last night claiming this scandal is all because of sexism against the deputy PM. As Guido first reported yesterday Starmer and Morgan McSweeney advised Rayner to go to the PM’s ethics adviser instead of resigning. Laurie Magnus is interviewing Rayner this week and due to give a report early next week or sooner. If Rayner’s story is believable to Magnus she may find herself highly damaged, but off the hook…
Not everyone is convinced that Reeves’ move to go for a Winter Budget instead of an autumn one is wise. Winter is coming…
26 November is the latest possible date on which Reeves could hold the budget. She’s heading down the chimney, leave your pension and primary residence on the mantelpiece…
Stephen Herring, former Head of Taxation at the Institute of Directors, tells Guido:
“Firstly, there will be less time to fine-tune the Finance Bill provisions for any tax measures (especially new taxes) coming into force on 6 April 2026.
Secondly, waiting for some good economic news to occur in the extra few weeks will backfire if there is further bad news on growth and interest rates or government debt, tax collections, government spending or inflation.”
James Quarmby, founding partner at private wealth managers Stephenson Harwood, adds that the “Treasury is like a leaky bucket” and advisers are seeing a “spike of clients saying: ‘Can you get me out of the UK because she’s going to bring in an exit tax.’” An exit tax is case in point – unlikely to occur in reality, in people’s heads thanks to panicked Treasury briefing about a range of tax rises…
The decision to delay the budget until winter will therefore lead, Quarmby says, to “another two months of monstrous suggestions… the lead up to the first budget she held was torturous, it’s déjà vu… the last thing you want just before Christmas.” Nothing burns like the cold but taxes…
Publicly available tax advice from HMRC rules out the supposed “advice” Rayner received in relation to her SDLT payment on the purchase of her third home in Hove.
On simply worded Gov.uk guidance titled “Guidance: Higher rates of Stamp Duty Land Tax” Rayner’s exact situation is advised on:
“What property the higher rates apply to
When you know who the rules apply to, you should work out how many residential properties each of you will own at the end of the day of your new purchase.
If any of you will own, or part own more than one residential property worth £40,000 or more, you will have to pay the higher rates on your new purchase (unless there is another reason why the higher rates do not apply).
Include any residential property that:
- is owned on behalf of children under the age of 18 (parents are treated as the owners even if the property is held through a trust and they are not the trustees)
- you have an interest in as the beneficiary of a trust
Include your current home, if you still own it at the end of the day you buy your new home.”
Shoosmiths have confirmed they did not advise Rayner on the matter. Who did?
Generous hacks have said the tax situation is extremely complex – it is spelled out here in black and white. Did Rayner not check the online advice when claiming a wrongful £40,000 discount?
Guido hears there is significant disquiet in Downing Street over the handling of the Rayner affair. One source tells Guido: “Few of us think she can survive the raw politics of this, especially given how over the top she was when we were in opposition.” A point that has been painstakingly played out over the last few days with clips of firebrand Rayner’s past statements…
Insiders tell Guido that Starmer is determined not to have Rayner be scalped and “wants to see what Magnus says.” Staff are baiting their breath…
A Downing Street source says: “There will always be something with Ange” and adds: “Even if her version is true, the fact is she didn’t pay right tax – she can’t remain as DPM if not. Patience is running out with Rayner’s propensity for personal scandal…
Guido on the now rapidly moving grapevine hears that a number of Downing Street staff don’t think Rayner will survive long enough to get to the conclusion of Magnus’ investigation. One says “as messy as it will be, it’s better now than in some other self-imposed drama later on.” The PM’s ethics adviser Laurie Magnus has already spoken to Rayner this week after sources say Starmer and Morgan McSweeney advised her to explain herself instead of resigning. He is set to see her this week properly and has asked for the relevant documentation. A judgement is expected early next week. Road to Damascus…
Testifying before the US House Judiciary Committee on free speech, Nigel Farage pointed to the arrest of comedian Graham Linehan. He warned:
“This could happen to any American. You will be doing us a favour if you said to the UK Government, ‘you simply got this wrong, at what point did you become North Korea.”
Jitters in Downing Street…
Red Wall Labour backbencher Jonathan Brash told GB News that Starmer should resign:
“I’m completely fed up about it, and I think it’s got to the point now where I genuinely think that, as far as the Prime Minister is concerned, it’s not a case of if, it’s when.”