The latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI composite output index dropped to 48.5 in May from 52.6 in April. A 13-month low and well below the 50 expansion threshold…
That reading significantly undershot the 51.6 consensus forecast from Reuters-polled economists. Services saw the sharpest activity decline since January 2021, with the overall reading the lowest outside the pandemic in nearly a decade. S&P Global’s Chris Williamson said there is a “perfect storm” of political uncertainty compounding the economic fallout from Iran…
Firms reported falling output, surging inflation, supply shortages, and job cuts, with weaker investment sentiment and delayed consumer spending decisions. And Labour’s faux-leadership contenders are arguing about how much to increase tax by…
The Mail’s Christian Calgie trekked up to Makerfield this week to follow Reform on the campaign trail. By coincidence, he collided with Andy Burnham in a café. It did not go well. Burnham decided to turn it into a lecture on ‘boundaries’ (during an historic by-election in which he’s trying to defenestrate the Prime Minister)…
Calgie writes today:
“He did not seem to want to engage. In fact he appeared furious and fumed: ‘You don’t go into a place like that unannounced! You’re out of order there!’
When I protested that I was merely on Nigel Farage’s campaign trail and that the encounter had not been planned, Mr Burnham raged: ‘I know who you are but you should not do that. You should have boundaries. I’m not going to do a “friendly, matey, this that or the other”. You need to be told.’
I could not understand why he was so angry and asked if he was taking lessons from Donald Trump by launching personal attacks on journalists for doing their jobs.
‘The Press does not walk in like that,’ he responded. ‘If you’re going in with the media and a political party, you do not waltz into a place like that.”
Burnham obviously isn’t getting enough sleep, because he also had a tetchy encounter with the Express’s Aaron Newbury. If he’s this allergic to media scrutiny already, we can probably rule out televised lobby briefings when he’s in No10…
Wes Streeting has called for a massive hike in Capital Gains Tax as part of his pitch for the leadership. Or the highest office possible under Burnham…
Streeting complained to the BBC’s Political Thinking podcast about the tax system and proposed a “wealth tax that works“:
“A member of my family is a cleaner in Lancashire. She pays a higher tax rate on her salary than her landlord pays for the growing value of the home she lives in. She slogs her guts out, he puts in far less effort, yet the state rewards him more than her. And we wonder why people are angry.
The system is penalising work. It’s not fair and it’s bad for our economy. We need a wealth tax that works. A pound made from simply owning assets should not be taxed less than a pound made from a hard day’s work. We can do it in a way that is pro-growth, pro-entrepreneur and pro-work.”
The former Health Secretary, who gave his resignation speech in the Commons yesterday, has misunderstood capital gains, which are not income. International evidence (and UK evidence) shows that when CGT rates go up revenues go down…
Streeting’s proposal is for capital gains tax rates to match the three bands of income tax – 20%, 40%, 45%. “Under the proposal, a person’s capital gains tax band would be calculated by adding up their income and profits from assets.” If the tax rate was 40%, then an increase from 24% to 40% would be a 66.7% increase and an increase from 24% to 45% would be an 87.5% increase. Streeting relies on a paper by the architect of the now-discredited Farm Tax which claims £14 billion could be raised…
HMRC’s own calculations show that increasing higher Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points (a 21% increase in the rate) would actually reduce revenue by £3.5 billion. A 5% increase would reduce it by £870 million. Increasing the lower rate also reduces revenues – the relatively modest CGT rises that have already taken place have resulted in significant lost revenue…
The latest HMRC stats from 2023-4 shows that the average gain per CGT taxpayer was about £174,000 in a year. That means the 45% tax rate in the majority of cases, which according to HMRC forecasts predicts a £7 billion loss in tax revenue…
With three exceptions European countries tax capital gains at substantially lower levels than income. Those three all tax them at between 20% and 10%…
Streeting has proposed this idea before in a pamphlet which seems to represent the last time he thought about policy. The ‘Labour Growth Group’ has mostly copied Farm Tax creator Arun Advani’s proposals in their own paper. Pop that in the bin…
Guido also called this at the beginning of the month. Tomorrow’s news, today…
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has pushed back against criticism of her joint video with The Only Way Is Essex star Gemma Collins in the DfE building. The first was released yesterday…
In one of the videos released by the government Collins said:
“You better make sure, honeys, that whatever you’re going to be learning, you concentrate because you’re going to be taking it into your future career. And one day, kids, this could be you. I hope this will help people to be ambitious. I didn’t even get a grade in maths because I found it so panicky and so stressful. Part of that was not believing in myself. All that pi in the sky or whatever it is…”
Some people pointed out that Collins may not have been the best choice for advertising the government’s new push on vocational education. The latest announcement on that came overnight: “Regional funding pots announced to train next generation of construction workers “…
Phillipson complained to Radio 5 Live today: “There’s a big dose of snobbery here… You know ‘what does she have to offer?’, ‘what does she have to contribute?’… She can reach some of the audiences we want to reach to make sure they know what the government is trying to do...” Phillipson attacked “killjoys”…
The videos have achieved a massive reach. Guido hears there is a bit of consternation among some in DfE, with Director of Communications Robin Punt, installed this January, said to have made the call to bring in Collins. For no cost – until she is appointed a “tsar” of something…
Not sure what she expected…
Hat-tip: The Sun…
Paula Barker, Liverpool Wavertree MP backing Andy Burnham, told Times Radio there wouldn’t be trouble from the markets under Burnham:
“The markets will have to fall in line.”