Contracts and pay for SpAds are set to be finally signed off next week. Guido hears the Cabinet Office is pushing to get everything wrapped up, pencilling in next Thursday as the date. Though, as always in Whitehall, there’s a chance political wrangling could push things further down the line…

Also on the agenda is the publication of SpAd registered interests. Expect some eyebrow-raising revelations…

Under Sue Gray, SpAds found themselves on unusual four-month probationary contracts – a mark that ironically Gray didn’t quite make herself. Now it’s Morgan McIavelli’s turn to whip the team into shape and stamp out any murmurs of unionisation over pay and conditions. Preliminary commiserations for those SpAds who don’t make it onto permanent contracts…

Farage’s rallying call to Tory councillors is already paying dividends. This morning, a Tory defector made waves by joining Reform, and now two more Scottish Tory councillors have followed suit: former Aberdeenshire Council Leader Mark Findlater and Laurie Carnie, who secured a seat as a Tory councillor in 2022. Reform’s first two councillors in Scotland…

Despite having minimal infrastructure in Scotland, Reform is enjoying impressive polling numbers in various selections. A spokesperson for Reform UK said:

“In less than 24 hours we have seen three Councillors join Reform, both leaving the Tory party. The latest two today just go to show that the Tory brand is broken not just in England but across the United Kingdom. Scotland has been failed by Labour and the SNP for decades and the Scottish Tories have been utterly dismal in their opposition. This is just the start for Reform, we plan to campaign hard in the run up to the Holyrood election in 2026 and win seats right across Scotland.”

Expect more defectors to follow…

Rachel Reeves has, now that she’s arrived in Washington, confirmed she’s rewriting the calculation of UK debt to borrow more money. This will be done by including government assets in the debt measurement. Reeves is giving herself space to borrow something like £50 billion and still claim that debt is falling in five years…

Meanwhile companies are liquidating themselves at a high rate and 10-year gilt yields have hit their highest level since Labour came to power. Maybe that’s because Reeves last year specifically ruled out changing the Tory government’s latest debt metric:

“I’m not going to try to fiddle the figures or make something different to get better results. We will use the same models the government uses.”

The “Iron Chancellor” strikes again. All eyes on the markets now…

Businesses continue to vote with their feet and shut up shop, a trend that shows no signs of slowing down, even before the budget is unveiled. So far this month, over 1,600 members’ voluntary liquidations have been recorded, according to filings with The Gazette. More than double the level for the whole of October last year. Business owners are heading for the hills, taking UK job prospects with them… 

The uptick in liquidations has been blamed on Reeves’ looming capital gains tax hike and expected cuts to business asset disposal relief. Keeping capital and business in Labour’s Britain is far from attractive – and this is before any tax hikes have been formally announced. Imagine the exodus after Halloween…

Yesterday the government announced the appointment of Mo Baines as a Lead Non-Executive Director (NED) for a one-year term on the Board of the MHCLG. It claims Mo is an “expert in public policy and local government” but doesn’t mention anywhere that she is longtime President of UNISON’s expansive Manchester branch. Unison has donated £28 million to Labour since 2010…

Guido had a closer look at Baines’ history and can reveal she led the Labour Party’s “Community Wealth Building Unit“, founded by Jeremy Corbyn “to ensure that economic, social and environmental justice sit at the heart of all of our inclusive economy policies.” A party political unit whose stated role was to “help Labour councils” “restructure and modernise” to oppose Tory policies. Also leading the unit was Mary Robertson, LOTO’s Head of Economic Policy. Rayner has circumvented normal Civil Service hiring rules to insert a former party adviser to an impartial role…

Baines wrote a report in 2021 on UNISON’S behalf calling for “leveraging capital investment levels last seen in the post-war years” to build mass council housing across the UK. More worringly, Baines demanded the imposition of “living rents,” a policy that would shred the rental market by forcing rents to be calculated from “affordability based on earnings.” Rayner says: “I look forward to working with her to drive forward our ambitious agenda over the next year.” Gulp…

The Public Law Project, a legal charity brimming with left-wing activists, is gearing up to host a training event next month aimed at NGOs and charities “seeking to influencing law and policy.” Expect the usual parade of activist speakers from organisations like the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants and Equally Yours…

One speaker caught Guido’s eye in the “Influencing and Working with Government Departments” segment: none other than Ellie Cumbo, the former Special Adviser to Shabana Mahmood, the Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary. Ellie had been an Labour adviser since 2023, then a SpAd from July, though has since left the department. Still, for a tidy sum of £99, attendees will get the chance to hear directly from the Justice adviser on how to sway the department. Something like ‘Just contact me, and I’ll have a word’…?