Now the prospect of a cabinet minister, David Miliband, setting up a blog has made Guido laugh and wince. The example of Tom Watson MP tells us that it will be one long press release. Tom’s blog was interesting, than he became a whip and it became boring. How much worse will the robotic Miliband’s blog be?
It was a surreal moment, it made Guido hesitate and probably miss taking a few hundred extra quid off deluded Huhne backers as the market went crazy. The Huhne price collapsed and liquidity dried up. So Adam, as much as Guido appreciated the kudos, thousands of pounds of money for Huhne disappeared from the screen in the next minute. Money that could have been re-invested in Margaux.
Whilst on the subject, the City Tipster and Guido would like to thank our benefactor, the Huhne market manipulator, we think the way “the collar” was often placed points to it being someone with financial market experience. Whomever you are, our only regret is that we didn’t hit you harder and more often. As for YouGov getting it wrong, they didn’t, it was in our opinion how you factored in the commissioner bias, we thought that averaging the two polls from the two opposing camps cancelled out the push polling bias. Also the rise of Huhne galvanised the Mingers into getting their act together, by YouGov 2 they were no longer complacent. After that they really hit the phones and cracked the whip on MPs to bring the vote in from the constitutencies.
Ming call centre campaign reached armchair activists…
Huhne was by far the best campaigner, it was aggressive and determined, Ming’s campaign was an establishment campaign, Hughes’ was a hopeless campaign.
Of more concern than who will lead the LibDems is, who will be humiliated, Mike or Guido? Mike has cashed in his bets, Guido is balls deep in Ming…
Analysts : City Tipster + An Anonymous Hedge Fund Trader. The City Tipster is an active political punter.
Disclaimer : YouGov 1 first preference data based on information leaked to Guido and denied by Kellner. Originally received from Huhne allied source subsequently vouched for by Ming allied source. Second preferences confirmed by YouGov. YouGov 2 data taken directly from YouGov.
Assumptions : Both the YouGov private polls had a leading question bias – first toward Ming, second toward Huhne BOTH against Hughes. We looked at bias against Hughes – factoring the polls having the same negative effect on Hughes that they did in turn for Chris Huhne and Sir Menzies Campbell. This factor was found to not be enough to change the final percentage when rounded.
We have produced average (mean) figures across the two polls. We have also produced a second calculation that attempts to factor in the bias against Hughes that the poll itself indicates.
The first preferences in the first YouGov poll are not exact (note they add up to 98%). However we have confirmed with a number of sources that they are “accurate” +/- 1%. For the purposes of accuracy, those first preferences now do add up to 100% having been adjusted on a pro-rata basis.
First Round Poll of YouGov Polls :
Final Result Factoring in Second Preferences:
Email Guido for full dataset spreadsheet with calculations.
++ ANALYSIS SAYS SECOND PREFERENCES WILL GIVE MING VICTORY ++
++ DATA TO FOLLOW ++
With the last chance to safely post voting slips coming tomorrow, Guido is calling the LibDem leadership election for Ming Campbell. Mike Smithson is calling it for Huhne (but keeping an all green screen). Young upstart tipster SpecialBets is also calling it for Ming.
The only hard polling evidence is that Ming and Huhne are nearly within a margin of error on first preferences and that the majority of second preferences will go to Ming. The “Greenwash” smear on Huhne looked to me like a petulant Hughes backing op, Hughes also bitch-slapped Huhne early on and Hughes backers suspect Huhne of being more right-wing than he now professes. Hughes is the choice of sandal wearers and they will not switch to a multi-millionaire City refugee easily. Hughes’ second preferences will go to Ming in great numbers. Phone polling by young LibDem activists (enjoy Ming’s gift vouchers kids) also gives it to the old man. While Guido was writing this (a little before midnight) the betting market switched favourites. Guido has been in close contact with one of the biggest political punters throughout the last month (a player who can account for one-third of the daily market volume), he reckons that Huhne’s market manipulator (who disappeared this weekend) will be looking at a middling five-figure loss.
“Well, we have been working on it. Let me put it this way if I’d had to write the script for the opening day then I certainly wouldn’t have written it the way it turned out.”
So for a few minutes the situation was tense (although Nick Robinson was laughing with George Pascoe-Watson from The Sun in the front row at the dilemma). Eventually an African LibDem intervened so no white-on-black pictures would appear.
No surprises, Ming and Huhne were about equal on the clap-o-meter, maybe Ming had the edge with his better sense of humour. Hughes was all earnest and vicar-like, he rambled but the audience was not his, Huhne didn’t inspire but he was competent.
Funniest question from the floor was from someone who looked like a Tory in a yellow tie asking “when would they withdraw from the EU – AS THE PEOPLE WANT?”
Guido was handed a leaflet by a Green beardie-weirdie type which was going to go straight in the bin, except it does have an interesting allegation about carbon-neutral Huhne. He apparently owns substantial shareholdings in two gold mining companies. Gold which has to be smelted, a process which is responsible for 13% of global carbon emmissions. To be honest, Huhne’s conversion from BMW driving city tycoon to Green, electric-car-driving political visionary, does strike Guido as politically convenient.
Obviously somebody in Victoria Street reads Guido and has a sense of humour. Key in Chris Huhne and look what you get:
Please no more Google Ads. Please.
UPDATE : Cameron’s advert has gone, possibly something to do with an organised ker-ching click-fest by LibDems.
UPDATE : A co-conspirator tells Guido that Google Ads keywords per click for Huhne cost 2p, for Ming 3p and Hughes 6p. Something to do with the Torygraph.
Search for Chris Huhne and you find Ming above him! They will have had to pay more than the Huhney Monster for the privilege.
Ming bidding here…
UPDATE : Mingers seem determined to boost Google’s profits. Guess what you get when you search for “David Cameron“?
Q. What’s the connection between Simon Hughes and his Nokia phone?
A. Dem iz both Finnish, innit.
Hughes is being offered at 30/1 for those who like outside bets. Ming has tumbled to 2/1. Guido understands that Ming almost literally tumbled over at the Midlands hustings. He lost his footing on stage and very narrowly avoided going arse over tit. It would have been a defining “Kinnock moment”.
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Huhne must be ahead of Ming (forget Hughes, he is finished) why else is he under such bitter attack by rivals? Apart from the fact that unlike Clegg et al he had the chutzpah and balls to run, fortune favours the brave they fear…
(Gratuitous irrelevant pictorial comparison of Huhne and Mr Bean suggested by Mrs Fawkes.)
The Treasury fielded the financial secretary, John Healey, to bat against it when it was launched. Healey sees himself as an attack dog, but is really more of an attack puppy. He tried the New Labour tactic of rubbishing it (without reading it). Healy described it as shoddy and not worthy of serious consideration. So why field a Treasury minister to rubbish it?
Something tells Guido that Matthew Elliott is getting under the skin of the Treasury. The polite, mild mannered CEO of the Taxpayers’ Alliance is deceptive, beneath the Clark Kent exterior is a superman of a campaigner. The former aide to David Davis is building a relatively broad anti-tax alliance which will make a strong case to a future Conservative government for the proceeds of growth to be shared with taxpayers. It is strategically advantageous for the Tories that there is a non-party grassroots lobby for lower taxes besides the business lobby. Gordon’s penchant for tax and waste is a rich vein of opportunity for the Tories. If they themselves are not willing to make the case, than the quietly combative Elliott will have to lead the charge.