Voters head to the polls for local elections today to elect eleven mayors, 2,600 councillors, 37 police and crime commissioners, as well as a new Blackpool South MP. The results will be significant, setting the mood music for the upcoming general election – and how internal Tory politics plays out over the summer. As always, Guido gives you the run down of what to expect when the results start rolling in…
Labour is streaking ahead by a solid and consistent 20 points in the national polls. On that basis, it is fair to say the Tories are going to struggle almost everywhere. The main Conservative talking point of the past 24 hours has been that London is looking closer than thought – but it seems very unlikely Susan Hall will ultimately beat Sadiq Khan clinching a third term. The government is spinning hard that winning just one of the Tees Valley or West Midlands mayoralties would be an incredible success. Both are in doubt in the final polling. Labour is managing down expectations on both – a sign that they are attempting to increase the damage should the Tories lose them. A mayoral wipeout would trigger major incoming flak for Team Sunak – but holding Tees Valley alone (Ben Houchen is the least Sunakite of the candidates) may not help them much either. Especially given he is an acolyte of Boris Johnson…
Notably, all the Tory mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from Rishi in their campaigns. The media has lost track of what is happening in Blackpool South, where Reform could well beat the Tories into second place. The results will drip out over the next few days. Watch out for some neck breaking spin. Guido will, as ever, help decode it…
Kemi Badenoch made a statement in the Commons this afternoon on updated business and trade statistics. To cries of “hear hear” from the Tory benches she spelled out some the UK’s trading achievements since Brexit, which include:
News that good was clearly too much for Labour to handle, and as soon as Kemi stood up, they all ran away. Leaving the opposition backbenches empty…
Julian Lewis and Badenoch had a bit of fun, the former noting that “there appear to be eight times as many people sitting on our front bench as on the entirety of the Labour backbenches – does she take that as a vote of confidence in the government’s positive message?” Badenoch came right back:
“It’s clear that Labour don’t like good news because as soon as there is any they exit the chamber unless they absolutely have to be here… the Honourable lady is blushing because she knows she knows it is true…“
If you can’t hack the heat, get out of the kitchen…
Sadiq Khan has given a senior job to a former key activist in a violent pro-migrant group which physically attacks immigration officers and police. Rupinder Parhar was appointed last April as the GLA’s “Head of Equalities” on a salary of £72,500. A surprising choice for the role considering her history…
In 2016, The Times revealed Parhar had a key role (which she did not deny) in Anti-Raids Network (ARN) – a group that encourages violent “resistance” and to “fight” against immigration and police officers enforcing removals of illegal immigrants. The group blasts what it calls the “war of the borders” between “Home Office ‘immigration enforcement teams’,” and “our neighbourhoods“. Some of their leaflets proudly describe how members had “attacked” police arresting an illegal immigrant in south London and how immigration vans had their “tyres slashed” and “windscreen smashed”. Let’s see what Londoners make of that…
Labour’s mayoral candidate for West Midlands Richard Parker has been reported to the police by the Tories. They claim Parker has allegedly breached electoral law over his home address as he put his flat in Birmingham, a short-term let on his nomination form when his main property is said to be in Worcestershire – outside the West Midlands Combined Authority area. Looks like Rayner isn’t the only Labour member who gets their houses mixed up…
West Midlands Police say they “can confirm that we have received an allegation and are currently assessing it”. By law, to run for mayor you must have either lived, worked, or owned or rented within the West Midlands Combined Authority Area during the 12 months period prior to the date of their nomination and the date of the election, or are a registered local government elector. The Tories say he’s only just started renting his flat in the correct area, so he’d be in breach of electoral law. Not a good look the day before polling day. Meanwhile, final polls are saying the West Midlands election result is “too close to call”…
The Reform candidate for the Blackpool South by-election, Mark Butcher, has been absent from events in the last week and even missed the important BBC hustings. Punters have been wondering why as the explosive reason remained unknown…
As it turns out, Mark was busy giving evidence in court concerning his own assassination attempt. In 2020 a convict gunman who had escaped prison (where he was serving a life sentence) seven years previously got arrested again and escaped again, before finally reappearing in Blackpool to try to kill Butcher with an improvised explosive. Police managed to get to him first, finding an bomb and a shotgun. His plan blew up in his face…
Butcher has had to keep tight-lipped while giving vital evidence – the would-be-assassin has now pleaded guilty to four charges, including “possession of an explosive to endanger life“. His sentencing is set for 4th July. Not the most helpful disruption to Reform’s otherwise booming campaign…
Red Wall Labour backbencher Jonathan Brash told GB News that Starmer should resign:
“I’m completely fed up about it, and I think it’s got to the point now where I genuinely think that, as far as the Prime Minister is concerned, it’s not a case of if, it’s when.”