Bash a Politician – Get a T-Shirt!

Peter Hain’s demise began with the leak of one document – his leadership campaign’s budget. That tip set in train a process that led directly to him being investigated by the police for undeclared donations.

You make this blog happen. Sources are anonymous (unless you want credit*). Who is on the fiddle? Who is lying? If you know “the line” is a lie, ask yourself why you got into politics; was it to cover up the truth or tell it?

Skype gossip and tittle-tattle online to Guido.
(If you haven’t got Skype, download it free here.)

Guido’s blog relies on you for information.

Voicemail : 0709 284 0531
Fax : 0709 201 2337
Email : guido.fawkes@Order-Order.com

*You may get a “Conspiracy Member” T-shirt.

Fantasy Island Economics

The 40% Golden Rule was officially smashed last week. The Office of National Statistics says even the fiddled government debt level now stands at 43.1%. The Treasury’s Code for Fiscal Stability allows the Government to break the Golden Rule temporarily if it specifies:

  1. the reasons for departing from the previous fiscal policy objectives and operating rules;
  2. the approach and period of time that the Government intends to take to return to the previous fiscal policy objectives and operating rules; and
  3. the fiscal policy objectives and operating rules that shall apply over this period

Well the government could honestly specify:

  1. We recklessly overspent in the good times and when things went wrong and we nationalised Northern Rock, we bust even the fiddled limits.
  2. We will probably carry on spending like a drunk sailor in port and leave the mess to George Osborne to sort out, just as Geoffrey Howe had to sort out our mess last time.
  3. We will just throw money at any electoral problem even though we seem to have run out of people and things to tax.

The penny has dropped for Denis MacShane of all people:

“the prime minister can announce that he will leave more money in the pockets of the British people by reducing their taxes. This can be targeted at the indigenous working class, furious at the incessant year-on-year council-tax increases above the rate of inflation… I do not know of a single minister who privately does not despair at the waste of money on pointless projects, publications, or legions of press officers that add no value.”

Welcome to economic reality Denis. When even former Labour Ministers are calling for tax and waste reductions the tax argument is won (without any help from the Cameroons).

Meanwhile, fresh from telling the banks to lend more mortgages at lower rates in defiance of LIBOR, Gordon is today going to tell the oil companies to drop prices in defiance of supply and demand. What is the point of Gordon’s market bucking fantasy rants? To get a photo op and show he is “doing something”, he will subsquently in interviews say that he told the oil companies to drop prices, just like he told OPEC to stop laughing at him. There is only one thing in his pwoer which will reduce petrol pump prices.

Given that some three quarters of the petrol price is tax, perhaps reducing the tax take on petrol would be the best way to help hard pressed voters. The Golden Rule is bust, we need economic growth. We can only boost the faltering economy if, as Dennis MacShane says, we “leave more money in the pockets of the British people by reducing their taxes”. You can’t buck the market Gordon, but you can borrow from the bond market…

+++ Source : Hillary SpeechwritersPreparing Concession Speech +++

.. and no – the source is not Drudge – a mid-level Hillary campaign source.

Johann Hari : Not Bananas, Just Drugged

Johann Hari has an article today in the Indy arguing that since Gordon Brown is going to lose the election anyway, he might as well go down with all guns blazing. Liberated from the need or indeed possibility of winning an election, he can swing madly to the left. Hari reckons Gordon should apologise for Iraq to the Iraqis and in doing so shame the Americans. Then Gordon should put up tax rates to 60%, price big family cars off the road, and as a finale, fly in Iraqi refugees from Syrian and Jordanian camps. Hari advocates all this political Hari kari for Gordon with the cheerful words “If you are going to lose, Gordon, lose with style”.

Gordon will no doubt be chuffed to bits with the, errrm, sensible advice Johann offers. This follows on from Hari’s article last Thursday; Why bananas are a parable for our times, in which we learnt about the CIA’s use of the banana to fight communism. On Sunday Hari wrote an article entitled;Are GM bananas the answer? Apparently if genetically modified they will overcome “the current bananapocalypse” caused by mega-corporations because “we have to muddle through now as best we can, trying to keep six billion people alive.”

Guido is a teensy weensy bit concerned and called Hari to ask – “Are you on drugs?” It turns out that he was but he is alright now. He was necking Modafinil earlier this month, a stimulant cognitive enhancer that is a “wakefulness promoting agent” used to treat narcolepsy, depression, schizophrenia and fatigue related conditions.

We touched on Xanax use – which he pops before hopping on a flight – Guido suggested that based on his own experience some drugs seem positively subtle at first but manifest themselves in ways not immediately recognisable by the user, but easily identified by others. No, no, no says Hari, with Modafinil he “was just able to glide into a state of deep, cool, effortless concentration.”

“It was as if I had opened a window in my brain and all the stuffy air had seeped out, to be replaced by a calm breeze… The next morning I woke up and felt immediately alert. Normally it takes a coffee and an hour to kick-start my brain; today I’m ready to go from the second I rise. And it continues like this for five days: I inhale books and exhale articles effortlessly…”

Not at all bananas…

MPs to Voters : “We Are Worth More Than You”

The recommendation that MPs get a tax-free £23,000 lump sum payment is a piss-take. This is equivalent to an extra £40,000 on their salary, which together with the pay rise they want will bring their package up to £115,000 plus gold-plated non-contributory index-linked pensions. Their reasoning is that the expense fiddles have become too embarrassing and they realise they will no longer be able to get away with them now they are out in the open.

Effectively they want the housing allowance fiddle to continue without the hassle of having to justify the expenses. No doubt some will say we have to pay them six-figure salaries if we want to attract candidates. Guido has never bought into that line of argument. The fact is that the supply of wannabee MPs is massive, hundreds apply for selection for safe seats when they become available. If there was a lack of wannabee greasy-pole climbers this would be plausible, there is however an abundant over-supply of those willing to join the parasitical political class. The reason? It is a cushy desirable, overly prestigious, over-paid job. Plenty of people do much harder, no prestige, lower paid jobs. MPs have a sense of self entitlement way out of line with their real worth.Average earnings at £23,244 are less than a quarter what MPs propose to pay themselves. Most people can apparently run a household on a quarter of what MPs claim to need to run two households – which suggests they are overpaid for what need compared to the rest of us. They are supposed to be public servants, yet too many of them are like the husband and wife expense fiddling team Mr & Mrs Keen-on-expenses. In it to maximise their profit at the public’s expense…

We have serving soldiers in war zones on the poverty line, their starting rate of tax just doubled. MPs award themselves £400 a month for groceries when they are in their cosy Westminster homes, those same MPs voted for soldiers to have to pay for their own rations. Children in state schools are fed on 50p per diem, MPs claim £20 per diem. MPs get their snouts deep into the public trough way ahead of more deserving children and soldiers. So much for politicians putting the public interest first…

Rich & Mark’s Monday Morning View

Milibandwagon : Scared to Roll?

The malevolence of the Brownies deterred Miliband from running for the leadership last year – to the disappointment of the now vindicated Blairites. Miliband is, we are told reliably, preparing himself in readiness to save the party from catastrophe. Guido was told – by someone who claimed to have spoken to him directly – that he is worried that if Gordon leads the party to disaster, New Labour will be buried forever and the party will fall into the hands of the left-wing once again. Miliband realistically hopes to diminish the likely margin of defeat and put up a stronger fight against Cameron than Brown can manage.

Miliband is clearly too afraid to wield the knife himself so is having to make over-the-top pledges of loyalty while pundits, backbenchers, donors, activists and supporters grow restless. Miliband needs either a credible stalking horse to come out or for Charles Clarke to organise a round-robin letter (along the lines of the Tom Watson letter to Blair) sent to No. 10 . Jack Straw putting on the grey suit and going to see Brown looks unlikely today, maybe the offer of a deputy premiership for him will be required. Maybe Miliband, like Portillo, just doesn’t have the balls…

What Have Tory MEPs Got to Hide?

“You lie and you spin, you fiddle your expenses and you break your promises…. To describe this disengagement and cynicism as a ‘mood’ is to underestimate both the depth and the intensity of the breakdown in relations between the government and the governed… we need to understand why this political breakdown has happened. A lot of it is to do with behaviour. The behaviour of a minority of individual politicians, in all parties. .”
  1. Sir Robert Atkins
  2. Christopher Beazely
  3. John Bowis
  4. Philip Bushill-Matthews
  5. Martin Callanan
  6. Den Dover
  7. James Elles
  8. Malcolm Harbour
  9. Caroline Jackson
  10. Timothy Kirkhope
  11. John Purvis
  12. Struan Stevenson
  13. Robert Sturdy
Open Europe surveyed 79 British MEPs from all parties as part of their Transparency Initiative. Most did not answer, some 19 did from all parties. This issue is toxic for the above 13 Tory MEPs that did not answer. They will, Guido suspects, come to regret their high handedness. The Tory grassroots is restless about the still unresolved EPP issue and suspects that too many MEPs go native in Brussels once they taste the gravy splashing around the EU-train. They are right…

ConservativeHome is campaigning to make Tory MEPs more accountable, this issue will be used by them to leverage against Europhile nativists. Cameron would do well to order the MEPs to be transparent about their expenses before the breakdown with the grassroots becomes total. Else the suspicion will grow that something shady is going on with these MEPs…

The Labour Left Looms

The lumpen left of the Labour Party reckons the answer to voter disenchantment is to abandon the centre and turn back to the old ways. A fish rots from the head, the weakness of the party leader makes it more likely that this rot will take hold.

Paul Mason, Newsnight’s shop steward, could barely contain his excitement last night reporting the prospect of a battered Brown introducing higher taxes on high earners, windfall corporate taxes and the expected soon to be announced “equality agenda” – in other words leveling down. This will be kamikaze left-wing stuff. Britain is already sliding down the economic competitiveness league, the Irish are welcoming FTSE 100 companies making the taxodus from HMRC’s demands. Gordon will now be weighing up a shift leftwards, to shore up his position within the party, giving some red meat to the activists and pundits like Polly Toynbee. It will be a change of policy direction based entirely on self -preservation.

He could survive the party conference whatever the polls by promising a left-wing lurch…

Poor Quentin, Not One of Us or One of Them

A claret enhanced co-conspirator emails:

I am sure you will be delighted to learn that one of the highlights of the Crewe campaign was seeing Quentin Davies canvassing the streets of Crewe on Tuesday. In his immaculate Saville Row suit he looked both uncomfortable and ridiculous as he banged doors in Oxford Street – an area of Crewe which bears zero resemblance to its London namesake.

I particularly enjoyed drawing my car up beside him and shouting “Labour Toff” – which was met with a bemused grin somewhat akin to that of someone feeling the effects of perhaps 2 bottles of claret at lunch!

Skipping along behind him was little Ben Bradshaw – who with his numerous Labour badges and neat little back-pack bore a remarkable resemblance to some sort of serial trainspotter.

Quentin, it is too late to go back…

Friday Caption Contest (24 Months to Save the Party Edition)

Prick of a Politician

Somebody has made a right prick of Gary Kasparov…

Gordon Can’t Be the Change Voters Want

It was the worst night possible for Gordon. The election was directed by him, it used “tough on toffs” tactics approved by him and dog-whistle issues designed to get out the vote. It failed.

Failed spectacularly – Labour areas did not get out to vote they stayed at home, resulting in a 17% net swing to the Tories. What Guido would describe as the “Maguire Manifesto” was tried out in Crewe. Just as Kevin Maguire talks down to his Mirror readers about “Tory toffs” and tries to divide “them and us” on a class basis, Labour tried to motivate the core vote with an appeal that is just dated. Even if it was as they now claim an attempt to inject humour into the campaign, the time for potent class-based politics is past, most people in the twenty-first century perceive themselves as middle-class. Using the language and imagery of the Beano’s Lord Snooty might appeal to kids, but voters know when they are being patronised. That strategy has now been tested to destruction against Boris and Timpson, it won’t work against Cameron either. So what appeal can Gordon offer voters?

The tipping point is now past, Labour is tired and has run out of ideas and public support. There is nothing they can do in government to turn that around. Taking policies from their opponents won’t work. Gordon is a big part of the problem, he can’t be the face of the change the voters want. The choice facing Labour now is to lose a general election catastrophically under Gordon, or find a more appealing fresher face like Miliband, Purnell or Johnson and lose by a lesser margin. If they lose catastrophically the party could swing to the left after a general election to Cruddas or McDonnell – condemning them to decades of opposition.

The Labour Left is blaming New Labour policies and pushing for a leftward shift. The younger heirs to Blair know this, they may not want to take the helm now, however if they don’t, the Labour Party might be finished off by the left-wing. Gordon is on course to destroy New Labour as an electoral force…

UPDATE : Luke Akehurst points out that if Labour lose badly, never mind catastrophically, Cruddas and McDonnell will almost certainly lose their seats. How amusing.

The Moment Gordon Cursed Met John Terry

This just in. Gordon met Chelsea’s penalty kick missing John Terry (pictured here) only a few weeks ago at Cystic Fibrosis charity event.

Doomed, doomed…

Last Night and the Jonah Brown Effect

As Guido noted yesterday, Gordon carefully wished both teams well the PMS insisted the PM was a “neutral”. He did however (as many pointed out) receive a recent visit to No. 10 from Chelsea boss Avram Grant. He is also sympathetic to Manchester’s Labour supporting multi-millionaire boss, Alex Ferguson. Is it any surprise in these circumstances that it was a draw after extra time? The Jonah effect was vectoring both ways, on balance the negative ju-ju was clearly weighing more heavily on Avram than Fergie…

UPDATE : When Gordon was asked about his meeting with Avram Grant he told the Lobby

“We had a very interesting discussion about who was going to win the Premier league and how the change in management at Chelsea was going to make a difference, and we speculated about the performance of all the different teams over the next few months.”

Doomed after discussing strategy with Gordon…

UPDATE II : Guido’s broker has just called to tell him that GOOG stock is down $31 since Gordon spoke at the Google Zeitgeist conference on Monday. Knew it was a short

+++ ONS : Public Net Debt 43.1% +++

The Office of National Statistics makes it official: 40% Golden Rule smashed by Northern Rock being included as government debt… don’t even think about Network Rail or the unfunded public sector pensions deficit…

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

The FT’s Wolfgang Munchau on the “fake maths” of economic forecasts:

“The truth is that our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited… The curse of our time is fake maths. Think of it as fake news for numerically literate intellectuals: it is the abuse of statistics and economic models to peddle one’s own political prejudice… The fakeness of the maths lies in an exaggerated inference. Economic models have their uses, as do opinion polls. They provide information to policymakers and markets. But nobody can see through the fog of the future.”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Trump vs Corbyn: Who Said It? Trump vs Corbyn: Who Said It?
Hammond: No Deal and I’ll Make UK Tax Haven of Europe Hammond: No Deal and I’ll Make UK Tax Haven of Europe
Benn’s Brexit Committee Bunfight Benn’s Brexit Committee Bunfight
Prospective Labour Candidate is Dominatrix Prospective Labour Candidate is Dominatrix
Watch: Corbyn Not “Out of Control” Watch: Corbyn Not “Out of Control”
Real Brexit: Gove Sets The Standard Real Brexit: Gove Sets The Standard
Tristram: V&A Must Charge for Entry Tristram: V&A Must Charge for Entry
Stoke: Fierce Four-Way Fight Stoke: Fierce Four-Way Fight
Guido is Secure Guido is Secure
Latest: “Queen Backs Brexit” Row Still Rages on Twitter Latest: “Queen Backs Brexit” Row Still Rages on Twitter
Labour Lose Sunderland Labour Lose Sunderland
Sweariest MP Revealed Sweariest MP Revealed
WATCH: Tories Launch Nuclear Missile At Corbyn WATCH: Tories Launch Nuclear Missile At Corbyn
PICTURE: Le Pen in Trump Tower PICTURE: Le Pen in Trump Tower
Tory: Will You Come to My Own Portrait Unveiling? Tory: Will You Come to My Own Portrait Unveiling?
Al-Jazeera Defends Jackie Walker Al-Jazeera Defends Jackie Walker
Here Are 6 Outlets Who Rejected BuzzFeed Memo Here Are 6 Outlets Who Rejected BuzzFeed Memo
Millionaire Hammond Claimed £90 For Smashed Phone Millionaire Hammond Claimed £90 For Smashed Phone
WATCH: Max Mosley Punches Policeman WATCH: Max Mosley Punches Policeman