Dataset : YouGov 1 & YouGov 2
Analysts : City Tipster + An Anonymous Hedge Fund Trader. The City Tipster is an active political punter.
Disclaimer : YouGov 1 first preference data based on information leaked to Guido and denied by Kellner. Originally received from Huhne allied source subsequently vouched for by Ming allied source. Second preferences confirmed by YouGov. YouGov 2 data taken directly from YouGov.
Assumptions : Both the YouGov private polls had a leading question bias – first toward Ming, second toward Huhne BOTH against Hughes. We looked at bias against Hughes – factoring the polls having the same negative effect on Hughes that they did in turn for Chris Huhne and Sir Menzies Campbell. This factor was found to not be enough to change the final percentage when rounded.
Methodology : This work has many imperfections but hopes to provide a snapshot of what opinion was like at the critical time when many Lib Dem members were casting their votes – voting slips were received by members Feb 7, polling was done Feb 2 and Feb 9.
We have produced average (mean) figures across the two polls. We have also produced a second calculation that attempts to factor in the bias against Hughes that the poll itself indicates.
The first preferences in the first YouGov poll are not exact (note they add up to 98%). However we have confirmed with a number of sources that they are “accurate” +/- 1%. For the purposes of accuracy, those first preferences now do add up to 100% having been adjusted on a pro-rata basis.
First Round Poll of YouGov Polls :
Sir Menzies Campbell : 38% Chris Huhne : 36% Simon Hughes : 26%
Hughes is thus eliminated, 2nd preferences are re-allocated (less those who said they would not cast a second preference).
Final Result Factoring in Second Preferences:
Sir Menzies Campbell : 53% Chris Huhne : 47%
click to enlarge
Email Guido for full dataset spreadsheet with calculations.