Emmanuel Macron is set to face Marine Le Pen, exit polls predict 28% and 23% respectively of the vote in the first round, according to projections by polling institute Ipsos.

Left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon comes in third, with 20% of the vote. Zemmour got 7% and conservative Valérie Pécresse from Les Républicains 5%. Which implies 20% of the also ran vote was to the left and 12% to the right. Whether those votes transfer directly is questionable, much of the left-wing vote will stay home and some centre-right voters will back Macron rather than Le Pen. How much decides the result…