How about this for a take from Matthew Paris in The Times this morning:
“For Badenoch it’s time, now the nutters have gone, for an olive branch towards men like Kenneth Clarke, Michael Heseltine, David Gauke, Dominic Grieve … all driven away by Johnson. James Cleverly and the sensible shadow chancellor Mel Stride could be her envoys to the wilderness into which moderate conservatives feel we have been cast.”
He’s far from alone in the commentariat, which, among with a lot of backbench Tory MPs, is jumping on the expulsion and defection of Rob Jenrick as an opportunity to realign the Tories to… the centre. Which is odd, as Badenoch is not a classic Tory wet, indeed, she has done more to kill off Net Zero, leave the ECHR etc than any of her predecessors…
The reality is that a ‘pivot to the centre’ would be electoral suicide for the Tories – and exactly what Nigel Farage wants. As pollster James Johnson puts it:
“To be anywhere the Conservatives have to win back the votes they’ve lost to Reform since 2024 – not to mention chunk of those they lost at 2024. One in five current Tories are also open to Farage’s party.”
And as pollster James Frayne wrote over the weekend:
“In a month, when public memories of the chaos of Jenrick’s departure totally fade, the reality will be this: the party’s recent top performer will be attacking them for their failures in government and their lack of imagination in opposition. This is a disaster for Kemi Badenoch and an incredible boost for Nigel Farage.”
They’re laughing in Reform HQ…
Reacting to the news of Jenrick’s sacking at a press conference in Fife, Nigel Farage said:
“I’ll give him a ring this afternoon. Might even buy him a pint.”