Electoral Calculus’s latest prediction gives Labour an 80-seat majority from just 28.1% of the vote, were an election to be held tomorrow. The same 365-seat win as the Tories under Boris in 2019…
The Tories would win 128 seats on 21.4%. Reform, despite polling 21.3%, is pushed into fourth place on seats with 57, behind the LibDems on 60. The model gives Labour a 44% chance of an outright majority and an 83% chance of being the largest party. The usual health warnings about polls apply. But Number 10 is looking closely at these numbers just like everyone else…
Krishnan Guru-Murthy asked John Healey: “Just finally, I mean Andy Burnham has been very clear he wants Britain back in the European Union in his lifetime. Do you?”
The Chancellor replied: “I’m older than Andy Burnham. I don’t expect to see that.”