Treasury & pensions minister Torsten Bell is trying to spin Labour’s way into economic sunlight. Doesn’t work…
In a new Substack piece and accompanying X posts Bell ends up making outlandish claims:
- Claim: “the UK economy has performed far more strongly this year than almost anyone expected, despite the real headwinds from the conflict in Iran.”
- The current upgraded 1.3% growth forecast (which is low growth) simply matches what the IMF predicted in January…
- Claim: “So this week the IMF revised up their forecast for UK growth in 2026 to 1.3%, the joint second fastest in the G7 alongside Germany.”
- Growth has also been downgraded for next year from 1.3% to 1.2% and the deficit in the same year at 3.2% vs 3.1%…
- Claim: “[the IMF] now expects UK inflation to rise in line with the rest of the G7”
- The IMF boosted its inflation forecast for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.3% since its last report in April. 2027 is worse – it predicts 2.8% inflation vs 2.4% six months ago…
- Claim: “The IMF spell out that the UK is doing more than anyone else in the G7 to strengthen our public finances (something even experienced economic commentators regularly miss)”
- All ‘consolidation’ is backloaded and pushed into 2028-29 and 2029-30. Spend now, worry about cuts later…
- Claim: “we are delivering the fastest fiscal consolidation in the G7”
- Debt is projected to rise from 102% of GDP this year to 102.5% in 2027, debt is not down, we’re still running a deficit…
- Claim: “The IMF forecast the UK to have the smallest deficit in the G7 by the end of the decade.”
- That is a forecast five years away, previous governments regularly failed to meet similar goals, all observers say the UK has a fiscal black hole…
- Claim: “when people oppose our fair tax choices they are really opposing this deficit reduction.”
- Deficits can also be cut through spending, tax rises mean choosing slower growth, the disability welfare benefit bill has risen by a quarter in the last four years…
There is a massive cost of borrowing crisis currently underway because the markets do not expect fiscal aptitude from this government. There is a £35 billion black hole. Labour has no plan to cut welfare spending. There is no path to 3% on defence. Cuckoo…
