Blair’s Institute for Global Change has put out a paper overnight pushing for Britain to rejoin a “reformed” EU over ten years. The old believers are seeing the entire project fall apart before their very eyes…
There are numerous ways in which the proposals set out would not work. Guido takes them in turn:
- Blair: set a public ten-year target to rejoin a “significantly reformed” EU as a cornerstone of the Burnham government’s ten-year plan.
- Problem: EU not incentivised to be bullied into taking Britain back, “reformed” is not defined in the paper, the conditions of reform could not be defined without a diplomatic breakdown.
- Blair: fix Britain’s own economy first so the EU wants Britain more and offers better terms.
- Problem: Numerous best methods for economic growth involve entrenching Britain’s position outside the bloc which would be obliterated by rejoining.
- Blair: Drop the red lines: customs union, single market, free movement and budget payments should all be on the table.
- Problem: the old problem of Britain wanting single market access without free movement or large budget payments remains, and Brussels still sees Britain as picking and choosing.
- Blair: put free movement on the table, ending it did not cut migration, so trade it for access and convince voters of the benefits.
- Problem: Public does not support free movement, support for rejoining falls sharply once opt-outs like this one are removed.
- Blair: the EU is showing “newfound flexibility” that Britain could use, like Canada’s “associate membership
- Problem: the paper actually admits nobody knows what associate membership means, and full accession under Article 49 requires a commitment to the euro and Schengen. So those would have to be rewritten…
- Blair: Britain should retain regulatory freedom to stay free to move faster on AI, gene editing and the MHRA.
- Problem: Most obvious case of having your cake and eating it, full membership means taking the whole EU rulebook, including the AI Act, so this freedom ends on accession.
- Blair: a Cabinet Office test should judge each EU programme on strategic return, not headline cost.
- Problem: Civil servants in Whitehall will not be able to design the UK’s re-entry to the EU. Wishful thinking…
- Blair: rejoin the electricity market and link carbon markets to cut friction and CBAM costs.
- Problem: the paper actually concedes linkage would likely push up British carbon prices and bills, and market access would bring pernicious EU environmental obligations.
- Blair: build a standing defence-industrial programme and use EU funds where they add value.
- Problem: SAFE talks already broke down over price and terms in 2025, and the EU protects its own industrial base strongly.
- Blair: turn the European Political Community into a delivery body with a secretariat that Britain funds.
- Problem: expensive talking shop.
- Blair: set the goal now and let cooperation build trust over time.
- Problem: elections over that period will change too much.
It is simply the case that the preferential treatment Britain enjoyed prior to Brexit was not palatable to the public. Whatever is offered next will be ten times worse…
There is a new push for Burnham to select rejoining the EU as his wedge issue in an election. Good luck…
