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Labour Conference kicks off this coming Sunday. The big concern at the top of the party is how to balance the chirpy chap optimism of Andy Burnham with the reality that has apparently only just dawned on Team Healey. Burnham’s pitch, found on the open page of the Conference guide, is to “bring back hope” and “get Britain believing again“. You’d think his predecessor was Emperor Palpatine based on how he talks about the last few years. Even though most of Burnham’s Cabinet is made up of the same people as Starmer’s…
Get Britain “believing” in what, exactly? It’s a question that has dogged Burnham since before he took office. If his Conference speech is a moment to answer that question, expect John Healey’s address the day before to offer a few terms and conditions. Yes, hope is good, but it doesn’t come cheap…
Talk of an early general election continues to surface, although the expected date varies from late November this year to next summer. Guido has long argued that the odds of going all the way to 2029 are slim, based on Burnham’s need to claim his own mandate, avoid the pain of making unpopular decisions early, and capitalise on a scattered right. The Mail on Sunday reported as much yesterday. At the time of going to pixel, it is unlikely Burnham will announce a big bang snap election date next week. What happens in Holborn and St Pancras on 8th October will inform his thinking…
Whatever the precise date may be, it is certainly on the minds of everyone heading to Liverpool next week. Outgoing Labour General Secretary Hollie Ridley even (who remains in post until October) makes explicit references to “Operation Second Term” in her Conference guide message. Funnily enough, Operation Second Term was the internal blueprint drawn up by Starmer’s No10 back in December 2025. Burnham’s team appears to have inherited it, much like everything else. ‘Believe’ in Continuity Keir Big Andy…
Speaking of Starmer, both he and Rachel Reeves are expected to miss next week’s circus. According to The Sunday Times, Reeves is still ‘considering’ her options after losing the keys to No11. One Labour source joked to Guido that she might change her mind and head up just to be a ‘pain in the backside’ like Rayner last year. She is at least invited to one fringe event discussing AI. Starmer has obviously already made up his mind…
The fringe events this year are the usual fare: Labour Friends of Israel are discussing ‘the battle to oust Bibi’, the EU ambassador is hosting a reception, and there are countless discussions about ‘Manchesterism’. The word “devolution” appears 43 times in the programme. Guido’s handy guide is coming soon. Although as of tonight, the number of times the word “(invited)” appears next to a speaker’s name is 162. In other words, lots of hosts still have no idea who is showing up to their event…
Andy Haldane, Burnham’s recent adviser on the economy who has not taken up a No10 job, told Andrew Marr on LBC:
“The market now suspects that this is a traditional tax-and-spend socialist government with better TikTok videos…
imposing windfall taxes on oil & gas or on banks or upping capital gains tax would […] repeat the mistake that Rachel made […] The Achilles heel, the fiscal Achilles heel of this government thus far has been its unwillingness and/or inability to cut public spending.”