For Lambeth – Morgan McSweeney and Steve Reed’s original hunting ground against the hard left – to go Green would rock what ideological basis exists for the Starmer project. Revolutions are infinite…
YouGov MRP • First London Council Poll
7
Projected Largest Party — 32 London Boroughs
2022 Actual
21
Labour
5
Conservative
6
Other / NOC
→
2026 Projected
15
Labour
↓6
5
Conservative
4
Green
NEW
4
Lib Dem
3
Reform
NEW
The Insurgent Breakthroughs
Green Party — Projected Largest in 4
Hackney
Labour since 1971
Lewisham
Labour since 1971
Waltham Forest
Labour since 1980s
Lambeth
Labour since 2000s
Greens currently hold just 49 London councillors total. Projected 2nd place in 12 of Labour’s remaining 15 boroughs.
Reform UK — Projected Largest in 3
Barking & Dagenham
● from Labour
Bromley
● from Conservative
Also projected 2nd place in Bexley and Hillingdon (behind Conservatives). Farage claimed in Dec he could win “half a dozen” boroughs.
⚠ Danger Zone
Half of all London boroughs rated “close”
16 of 32 councils are rated “very close” or “super close” by YouGov. Winning vote shares could be as low as 23–25%.
Labour leads at risk from Greens — rated close
Brent
Ealing
Enfield
Haringey
Hounslow
Newham
Conservative can’t recapture — rated “fairly close”
Westminster
Wandsworth
Conservative projected holds + gain
Bexley
Harrow
Hillingdon
Kensington & Chelsea
Barnet GAIN
16
of 32 boroughs
rated “close”
23–25%
could be enough
to “win” a borough
5
parties competing
for council control
YouGov MRP poll of 4,548 adults, 27 March – 21 April 2026 (1,520 in final model). Projects vote share only — not seats or council control. Source: Politico / YouGov.
