The Treasury’s latest survey of independent forecasters shows every major economic indicator has worsened in a single month. Look at the data below. The sub-badges flag the worst-case forecast for those who really want to suffer…
| GDP Growth 2026 forecast |
1.0% ▸ 0.7% ▼ LOW: 0.3% · OBR: 1.1% |
| CPI Inflation 2026 forecast |
2.5% ▸ 3.2% ▲ HIGH: 4.6% · BoE TARGET: 2.0% |
| RPI Inflation 2026 forecast |
3.2% ▸ 4.3% |
| Unemployment Q4 2026 forecast |
5.3% ▸ 5.4% ▲ HIGH: 5.6% |
| Borrowing (PSNB) 2025–26 forecast |
£117.7bn ▸ £127.1bn ▲ HIGH: £163bn |
Reeves is already blaming Iran for all of this. The independent consensus, compiled by the Treasury’s own ‘Macroeconomic Co-ordination & Strategy Team’, is now far more pessimistic than the OBR numbers underpinning her fiscal rules. Scary enough to make the steeliest of Chancellors weep…
The day after Starmer U-turned and refused to blame Trump for the war Rachel Reeves told the Mirror:
“Obviously no sensible person is a supporter of the Iranian regime, but to start a conflict without being clear what the objectives are and not being clear about how you are going to get out of it, I do think that is a folly and it is one that is affecting families here in the UK but also families in the US and around the world.”