The Treasury’s latest survey of independent forecasters shows every major economic indicator has worsened in a single month. Look at the data below. The sub-badges flag the worst-case forecast for those who really want to suffer…
| GDP Growth 2026 forecast |
1.0% ▸ 0.7% ▼ LOW: 0.3% · OBR: 1.1% |
| CPI Inflation 2026 forecast |
2.5% ▸ 3.2% ▲ HIGH: 4.6% · BoE TARGET: 2.0% |
| RPI Inflation 2026 forecast |
3.2% ▸ 4.3% |
| Unemployment Q4 2026 forecast |
5.3% ▸ 5.4% ▲ HIGH: 5.6% |
| Borrowing (PSNB) 2025–26 forecast |
£117.7bn ▸ £127.1bn ▲ HIGH: £163bn |
Reeves is already blaming Iran for all of this. The independent consensus, compiled by the Treasury’s own ‘Macroeconomic Co-ordination & Strategy Team’, is now far more pessimistic than the OBR numbers underpinning her fiscal rules. Scary enough to make the steeliest of Chancellors weep…
Former leader of the SNP in Westminster Ian Blackford told Times Radio why he believes Nicola Sturgeon’s claim that she spent no time in the kitchen and therefore didn’t see any of her husband’s purchases:
“She doesn’t have a passion for cooking.”