Guido was first to point out the questions over YouGov’s polling methodology when it comes to Reform’s position in their voter intention tables. Since then, the issue has caught fire in the media and in polling world…
YouGov published the first stage of its method in response. From that, Guido’s polling analysts can see who loses and wins from their system that is unlike any other pollster…
Taking last week’s poll as an example (see the table), the bottom line is that the methodology cost Reform -2.4 and Greens -2.1, but Lib Dems went up +2.7 and Con +2.1 on the original raw data. Polling industry sources question this and characterise the process as a heavy intervention…
It’s what pollsters call a model overlay – you don’t just rely on the actual answers and how the poll balances constituencies, but on a layer of analysis which is imposed on that model on top. YouGov looks bang to rights here, it won’t be the last Reform battle with the pollsters…
Douglas Alexander – a friend of Starmer’s – was asked on Sky News if the PM will be in post at the next election. He wasn’t so sure himself:
“I think he will. There are no certainties but of course I think he will lead and I think he should because, frankly, on the biggest call in this parliament he’s exercised the right judgment, which is to keep us out of someone else’s war.”
