Guido was first to point out the questions over YouGov’s polling methodology when it comes to Reform’s position in their voter intention tables. Since then, the issue has caught fire in the media and in polling world…
YouGov published the first stage of its method in response. From that, Guido’s polling analysts can see who loses and wins from their system that is unlike any other pollster…
Taking last week’s poll as an example (see the table), the bottom line is that the methodology cost Reform -2.4 and Greens -2.1, but Lib Dems went up +2.7 and Con +2.1 on the original raw data. Polling industry sources question this and characterise the process as a heavy intervention…
It’s what pollsters call a model overlay – you don’t just rely on the actual answers and how the poll balances constituencies, but on a layer of analysis which is imposed on that model on top. YouGov looks bang to rights here, it won’t be the last Reform battle with the pollsters…
In Henry Mance’s piece today for the FT, lunching with Nigel Farage:
“Splendido!” Farage says, when the drinks arrive; I suppose it’s a step to European reconciliation. We clink glasses, and he lights the first of two back-to-back Benson & Hedges. A few minutes later, we’re back downstairs. “Are you drinking? Good.” He orders a glass of Sauvignon blanc for each of us — not a bottle, “because it’s Lent” — followed by a bottle of claret, to have with our meal. They say Farage drinks less than he used to. They say a lot of things.”
