A new report written by ex-Treasury economist Chris Walker estimates that more than 10% of non-doms have already packed their bags and fled the UK thanks to Labour scrapping the non-dom tax status. Another big blow to Reeves…
The report titled UK Non-Doms Tax Reform: A Critique and Retrospective Analysis estimates 26,000 non-doms – out of 238,000 who claimed non-dom status in the last 18 years – have left the UK based on figures from Henley & Partners on the number of millionaires leaving London in 2024. Data from the CEBR estimates if 25% of non-doms were to leave the UK, the net gain for the Treasury would be zero. Any higher the Treasury would start losing revenue…
The report also points out:
Chris Walker, founder of CW Economics and the report’s author said:
“It is clear that the original research that underpinned the Government’s decision to abolish non-dom status took a leap of faith. Its methodology around predicting behavioural changes was too narrow and that led to very optimistic findings about the number of non-doms who would leave and the amount of tax revenue the Treasury would raise”
Laffer curve already kicking into action…
Former Treasury minister and adviser to Burnham in the Makerfield campaign Lord Jim O’Neill, who has turned down a role in his government, said Burnham’s first statement Commons was:
“The last thing investors wanted to hear… gilt yields have risen by a 0.25% in one day, which is a lot. We’ve not had that since Liz Truss days… If your country is under the focus of ‘can they come up with a sensible fiscal strategy’ on a day when the markets think ‘well no, you’re not showing any sign of it’ you’re going to have a tough day…if it stays like this your mortgage rate is going up.”