Latest numbers from the Centre for Economics and Business Research on Reeves’ non-dom crackdown paints a grim picture for the Treasury. If just half of the UK’s non-doms decide pack their bags, the Treasury stands to lose a staggering £12.2 billion over the course of this parliament. Nearly 11,000 millionaires already fled Britain last year…
Even if a third jump ship, the exodus would cost the UK £700 million in the first year alone. If just a quarter of non-doms bail, the Treasury won’t see a single extra penny from scrapping the scheme. The OBR predicted the policy would raise £3.1 billion annually from 2026-27, though the CEBR costs that if zero non-doms left it would only bring in £2.5 billion that year. CEBR’s Sam Miley warns:
“This loss could escalate into the billions if a larger share left. For every non-dom deciding to relocate, the Treasury will not only lose the tax revenue from their income and gains, but also from their day-to-day activities, with non-doms typically being high spenders as well as high earners.”
Meanwhile, No 10 is reportedly scrambling to water down winter fuel cuts, as former transport secretary and convicted fraudster Louise Haigh urges Starmer to hike taxes to fend off Reform. Reeves’ budget blunders keep coming back to bite…
Former Treasury minister and adviser to Burnham in the Makerfield campaign Lord Jim O’Neill, who has turned down a role in his government, said Burnham’s first statement Commons was:
“The last thing investors wanted to hear… gilt yields have risen by a 0.25% in one day, which is a lot. We’ve not had that since Liz Truss days… If your country is under the focus of ‘can they come up with a sensible fiscal strategy’ on a day when the markets think ‘well no, you’re not showing any sign of it’ you’re going to have a tough day…if it stays like this your mortgage rate is going up.”