Latest numbers from the Centre for Economics and Business Research on Reeves’ non-dom crackdown paints a grim picture for the Treasury. If just half of the UK’s non-doms decide pack their bags, the Treasury stands to lose a staggering £12.2 billion over the course of this parliament. Nearly 11,000 millionaires already fled Britain last year…
Even if a third jump ship, the exodus would cost the UK £700 million in the first year alone. If just a quarter of non-doms bail, the Treasury won’t see a single extra penny from scrapping the scheme. The OBR predicted the policy would raise £3.1 billion annually from 2026-27, though the CEBR costs that if zero non-doms left it would only bring in £2.5 billion that year. CEBR’s Sam Miley warns:
“This loss could escalate into the billions if a larger share left. For every non-dom deciding to relocate, the Treasury will not only lose the tax revenue from their income and gains, but also from their day-to-day activities, with non-doms typically being high spenders as well as high earners.”
Meanwhile, No 10 is reportedly scrambling to water down winter fuel cuts, as former transport secretary and convicted fraudster Louise Haigh urges Starmer to hike taxes to fend off Reform. Reeves’ budget blunders keep coming back to bite…
Tom Baldwin, author of Starmer’s hagiography, spoke to Times Radio:
Tom Baldwin: “I think he’d like to do something. He’s very dutiful and driven by service. That’s why he came into politics. I think that’s characterised his time as prime minister. He hasn’t always sought popularity or been good at being popular. But I think he has some of the necessary qualities that we actually do want in a prime minister. That resilience, that relentlessness, that ability to carry the weight and the job really does weigh very heavily on people and he carries that weight very, very well.”
Jo Coburn: “NATO Secretary-General?”
Tom Baldwin: “I think that’s something that he would be interested in. I think it probably requires Andy Burnham’s government to support him in that and these are some of the questions which Andy Burnham has to resolve quite quickly.”