Nigel Farage’s odds of becoming the next Prime Minister are becoming more likely in the betting markets, with William Hill offering Farage a 27% chance of becoming PM, up from 20% just a week ago. Unsurprising when Farage is the UK’s most popular politician, with a solid 28% favourability among the public compared to Starmer’s measly 23%…
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s odds to be the next Prime Minister are 2/1 – an implied probability of only 33%. Meanwhile, the bookies think there’s a 25% likelihood of Starmer leaving office in 2025, and a 39% chance he won’t remain Prime Minister after 2029. A remarkable price for a PM who won a 170 seat majority just five months ago…
Farage is setting his sights on the next election, saying “We’re coming for Labour..this is step one, with our real ambition set on 2029.” Zia Yusuf notes that just over 6 months ago the bookies priced a 30% probability Farage would win his race in Clacton. In UK politics it’s only impossible until it happens…
Speaking on Times Radio, former Home Secretary David Blunkett spoke about overdiagnosis of mental problems:
“Let’s distinguish those who are really severely mentally ill, diagnosed with things that require prolonged medical and diagnostic treatment. My wife and I talk about this a lot, because she’s a retired GP, about the fact that you can be sad without being ill. You can be momentarily depressed because your boyfriend or girlfriend’s just thrown you and you’re not mentally ill. You can even have mild issues, which can be dealt with with the right kind of support, but it doesn’t make you mentally ill. So we’ve got a real task, I think, to get the psychology, if you like, of this over. But there are things where you definitely need medical intervention, and there are other things where you need good friends, you need good connectivity, and you need a job.”