The OBR has published its review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits. This is what Reeves was relying on at the start of her budget statement…
“The conclusion reached by the OBR is that, had the information that has since been shared by the Treasury been made available to them at the time of the March Budget,
‘… a materially different judgement about RDEL spending in 2024-25 would have been reached. The underspend assumption of £2.9 billion would very likely have been dropped, and so there would have been a materially higher DEL forecast for 2024-25 in the March 2024 EFO. However, it is not possible to judge now exactly how much higher.’
This is because, without rewriting history on the basis of greater pre-forecast information and challenge, it is not possible to judge how much of the £9.5 billion additional pressures identified from the information provided by the Treasury for this review, as existing at the time of the challenge panel in February, would have been absorbed and offset by other savings. However, the OBR would unquestionably have given more pointed warnings in the EFO about the policy choices that would have to be made.”
So the Treasury itself under Labour identified a £9.5 billion ‘Tory black hole.” Chief Treasury Secretary Darren Jones was on Politics Live right now peddling the “materially different” line “to use the language of the OBR” in justification for the budget’s policies. It is obviously in Labour’s interests to discredit the OBR’s previous forecast in light of its current one…
No sign of a £22 billion black hole as promised. Rows over the OBR’s politicisation are only going to get hotter…
Read the full review below:
Speaking on Times Radio, former Home Secretary David Blunkett spoke about overdiagnosis of mental problems:
“Let’s distinguish those who are really severely mentally ill, diagnosed with things that require prolonged medical and diagnostic treatment. My wife and I talk about this a lot, because she’s a retired GP, about the fact that you can be sad without being ill. You can be momentarily depressed because your boyfriend or girlfriend’s just thrown you and you’re not mentally ill. You can even have mild issues, which can be dealt with with the right kind of support, but it doesn’t make you mentally ill. So we’ve got a real task, I think, to get the psychology, if you like, of this over. But there are things where you definitely need medical intervention, and there are other things where you need good friends, you need good connectivity, and you need a job.”