After several weeks of inertia – during which the Labour government has been operating essentially unchecked – the Conservatives have finally sorted out their leadership election timetable. The new leader will be announced on November 2^nd. That’s more than 100 days from now, with nominations closing next week, on 29^th July…

Guido understands opinion was split on the Conservative Party Board – the organ that signs off a proposed timetable which is then ratified by the 1922 Committee Executive. The chief ‘go long’ argument is the idea of ‘testing’ each candidate thoroughly in the media – even though the main front runners are well known to Tory MPs and members. That only works if the media is properly interested… 

Those who argued for a new leader to be in place at conference in October (rather than a month later) submitted that the party simply doesn’t have enough money to sustain the delay – and during the long interregnum, Labour would be able to get away with murder. With Sunak holding the fort until November, the Tories are facing 100 days of irrelevance…

What emerged from the smoke filled rooms is ‘a classic fudge’ according to one MP involved in the deliberations – a long-ish timetable which puts a new leader in place by the end of 2024 but not by conference. Oddly:

• The Conservatives will announce their leader just three days before the US election result – during which time the broadcast media will be dominated by coverage of the US election and Starmer’s reaction.
• There will be no Conservative leader in place at party conference so no leader’s speech – leaving Starmer a pretty free hit at Labour conference.
• The Commons will sit for a decent stretch of time before the leader is confirmed, meaning more limp Parliamentary moments from a hobbled Sunak and little direction to the Tories’ efforts at parliamentary opposition.

As one former Tory minister put it: ‘Did Keir Starmer write this’?