Many cabinet ministers’ seats sit on a knife-edge. YouGov predicts that 12 will lose them. How will things pan out overnight?
- Jeremy Hunt, Godalming and Ash to LibDems by 15%.
- Grant Shapps, Welwyn Hatfield to Labour by 18%.
- Penny Mordaunt, Portsmouth North to Labour by 5%.
- Mark Harper, Forest of Dean to Labour by 4%.
- Alex Chalk, Cheltenham to LibDems 31%.
- Mel Stride, Central Devon to Labour by 1%.
- Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View to Labour by 11%.
- Esther McVey, Tatton to Labour by 1%.
- Gillian Keegan, Chichester to the LibDems by 5%.
- Simon Hart, Caerfyrddin to Labour by 9%.
- David T C Davies, Monmouthshire to Labour by 11%.
- Victoria Prentis, Banbury to Labour by 6%.
A lot of those will be announced at around 3 a.m. There are other fun seats to watch:
- Chingford and Woodford Green, around 3 a.m. Will ex-Labour Faiza Shaheen take enough votes from the left for Iain Duncan Smith to squeeze through? Reform is also standing…
- Rotherham. Reform is making excited noises about this seat after the Tories failed to submit papers for it. Will 2010 entrant Sarah Champion miss out on the Labour landslide?
- Islington North, around 3 a.m: Bookies have even odds on Corbyn winning. Recent polling suggests he’s on the way out…
- Bristol Central, around 3 a.m.: Labour frontbencher Thangham Debbonaire is trying to hold on in the face of a Green threat from the party’s co-leader Carla Denyer. Green-commissioned polling says they’ll win this one…
- Basildon and Billericay: Tory chairman Richard Holden might not win this safe seat 300 miles from his home. Maybe because it isn’t the 500/1,000 miles The Proclaimers demanded…
- Newark, around 3 a.m: Tory leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick is at risk. Who will import new Canadian Conservatism then?
- Richmond, around 4 a.m: Will Sunak be the first sitting PM ever to lose his seat? He’s said to be worried about it…
- South West Norfolk: Liz Truss is under threat from angry farmers. Local Tories have reported abysmal responses on the doorstep for weeks now…
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Onward founder, Downing Street’s Will Tanner is running in this safe seat. Will voters reject the author of national service?
- Wycombe, around 6 a.m: Steve Baker says he wants to run for Tory leader. He’ll have to move mountains to keep the seat…
- Clacton, around 4 a.m: Polls have predicted that Nigel Farage will take this seat off Tory Giles Watling. The “revolt” sort of relies on it…
- Ashfield, around 4 a.m: Earlier in the year Tory MPs said Lee Anderson’s defection would surely cost him the seat. It’s not looking so sure now…
- Ashton-under-Lyne: Angela Rayner is hoping to head off a challenge from Galloway’s Workers Party. Were the pleas to the Muslim community enough?
- Rochdale: Will George Galloway hang on? Labour is determined he doesn’t…
- Mid Buckinghamshire: Will Tory Greg Smith defeat the Greens’ Greg Smith and Labour’s former ‘Miss Voluptuous’ candidate? Tune in to one of the safest seats around…
That should keep punters entertained. Amid a likely cascade of Portillo moments…
