Guido reported last week that Tom Tugendhat soft-launched his leadership bid with a security-focussed op-ed. At a private fundraiser on a rooftop bar in London last month the leadership hopeful went into more detail on why he thinks a land invasion of Taiwan actually isn’t in China’s sights right now:
“I don’t know how many of you have done any military service at all, but I can tell you, running up and down hills is quite difficult at the best of times. If you’re doing it with weapons and packs, it’s harder. And if you’re doing it when your enemy is very well embedded in and shooting at you. Trust me, it’s really not very appealing. I did it in Helmand a few times. It is really rather unpleasant. And when you see what Taiwan looks like, that would be a very, very difficult landing. Now, personally, I don’t think that the Chinese are planning it for exactly that reason, I think it is a very difficult thing to do.“
Reluctance to commit to a land invasion is dependent on a high deterrent and keeping the Chinese off complete control of the sea and the sky. A source close to Tugendhat tells Guido “he continues to believe that the best way of keeping Taiwan safe against the threat of invasion is through robustly deterring the Chinese regime.” The Foreign Affairs Select Committee’s 2023 report says: “China has been developing its military with the taking of Taiwan, via force or coercion, in mind“. Relations with China are likely to play a big role in leadership hopefuls’ pitches to the party as figures like Iain Duncan Smith push for a massively more hawkish stance. On the domestic front Tugendhat takes a sombre tone:
“One of the things that we’ve got to work out is how do we make sure that our relationship with China is one that works because, frankly, at the moment, it’s been unbalanced and that’s a real challenge. Part of that, I’m afraid, is down to me and down to the work we have to do in stopping Chinese spies messing about in our backyard, because, frankly it’s a bloody nightmare, and they should stop.“
Expect more jostling over security in the months to come as politicians commit to different levels of long-awaited de-sinofication. It’ll be hawk on hawk…
Speaking to Sky News off the back of Rachel Reeves’ Air Passenger Duty hike, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said:
“Labour is dependent on those Red Wall seats, and yet every move she makes poisons economic growth and damages the UK’s recovery… it’s the Chancellor who stumbles from policy misstep to policy misstep… I think her policy decisions are incredibly stupid.”