When the history books are written – and some of them are already underway – there will be debate in the Conservative Party over who really called the shots on the timing of this general election – in other words, who is responsible for what could be a mass suicide event for the Tories. Since the abolition of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the Prime Minister alone has had his finger on the constitutional trigger to set the election date. So on one level the decision was Sunak’s alone, or one taken with his wife Akshata as a married couple…

But inside Number 10 the court of senior advisers was badly split. Firmly in the against column was Aussie election supremo Isaac Levido – who led the Tory operation to its 2019 electoral high point. He had consistently advised to wait until Autumn, and – Guido hears – appears to have simply been overruled within the last week. The argument to wait wasn’t about the chances of an improving economy – but simply time to get the campaign ready – and for MPs to have properly canvassed their seats and get good candidates selected. All Tory MPs were caught out, assuming the election would be in the autumn…

The most prominent voice in the go now column was Sunak’s understudy Liam Booth-Smith, Oliver Dowden supported the PM’s decision – both strong influences in the bunker. What drove them to make the calculation to pull the pin is unknown – there are arguments over a worsening policy situation on small boats, for example – or simply personal factors. Now that the decision has gone down as well as a bucket of cold sick, they are both attempting to row back by briefing that they did not in fact argue for it. Too late…

Meanwhile Guido has substantiated with multiple witnesses in the room various reports that experienced ministers Chris Heaton-Harris and even gung ho Esther McVey openly said a summer election was unwise, premature, bold or mad when Cabinet was called on Wednesday. Grant Shapps and David Cameron are said to have had misgivings. But by then, Sunak had already asked the King to dissolve Parliament, so there was no going back. Sneaky…
UPDATE: Source close to Dowden denies he was pushing for an early election. They claim he never gave a view either way, but supported the PM in his decision.