More than one government source says the plotting situation is: If Houchen wins, Sunak will be just about fine. Houchen, though, is looking a bit further ahead:

“My job as mayor is to do what I can for local people, and if that means I’ve got to work with the Prime Minister, to be frank it doesn’t matter to me who that is – I’m going to do all I can to make sure I get the best deal for the local area… even if there is a change of government later this year or if Rishi is still PM or it’s somebody else, I’ll work with anybody.”

Bit of a dampener for the current occupants of Downing Street…