In a new YouGov poll for The Times Labour sits at what you could describe as a comfortable 25-point lead. The real story, though, is Reform’s 15-points, which place them a miniscule 4 points behind the Tories, who are now at the same level as the day Liz Truss quit. Trading two points would make them equal. Banging on desks, not banging down voters’ doors…

This is the first proper poll since Lee Anderson’s defection as the latest Redfield and Winton figures have the party at 16 points in red wall seats, with members still flowing in thanks to the “Anderson effect”. A senior Reform figure tells Guido: “Never believe a poll that makes you feel good, but do remember the direction of travel. There is no reason to think there won’t be a phenomenal switch. What is a pretty strong dribble could become a flood“. The Tories haven’t stopped the flow so far…