Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives were smashed overnight in a double by-election loss further confirming the Tories’ worst fears for the general election this year. Labour gained Kingswood on a 16.4% swing, overturning an 11,220 majority – the seat vacated by Chris Skidmore so he could spend more time with the environment. CCHQ is spinning that Labour’s vote share there is somewhat below expectations – that will make no difference to a jubilant Keir Starmer. The Tory strategy in Kingswood was not to bother to run a full campaign. In an election year it raises big questions about the Tory machine…
Wellingborough is much worse for the Tories, because they did make a quiet effort to hold onto this classic middle England seat, believing it winnable. Bafflingly, CCHQ shortlisted the girlfriend of Peter Bone as the candidate – Bone’s recall over a scandal prompted the poll. Labour overturned their huge majority of more than 18,000 and ended up with a 6436 majority. The deeper story of the night is that Reform polled above 10% in both seats, the LibDems lost their deposit in both…
The Tories are now at an historic low point having suffered more by-election defeats in a single parliament than any point since the 1960s. Co-conspirators will recall that Team Sunak heavily campaigned on the issue of by-election losses under Johnson as a major reason he needed to be replaced – claiming Sunak would win them. This claim – like so many others from project Sunak – lies in tatters. When the PM took the Tory leadership (not before being beaten by Liz Truss the first time), his jubilant team of SW1 insiders crowed via anonymous briefings: “the grown ups are back in charge“. The election looks like a straight fight with Labour while the Tories bleed to Reform. The grown ups may not be in charge for much longer…
Starmer insisted his chances of leading the country are not diminishing. He told reporters during his visit to McLaren:
“No, no, no. I’m very happy to be out and about this morning, not talking about the internal politics of the Labour party, but talking about young people.”