New polling from Savanta could be the start of an election-year tightening. Labour’s lead is down to only 12 points this morning as the party gets punished for their latest U-turning shenanigans. Fieldwork was undertaken from 9-11 February, which means that the latest developments from Azhar Ali/Graham Jones haven’t been factored in. Guido wonders what effect they will have…

The Tories get a small boost and Reform is taken down a point. Savanta’s research director Chris Hopkins elaborates that the result “may well be in response to a torrid couple of weeks for Keir Starmer’s party, and part of a wider trend“. The overall trend is still that the Tories are disastrously behind, however. One poll does not a summer make, though subsequent polls will be watched closely…