Rumours swirl round SW1 of a spring General Election, and Guido hears that staff at CCHQ have been told that CCHQ and Number 10 are in lockstep for a May election. Nevertheless the logic of a spring election avoids peak boat crossing season and a potentially disastrous set of May local elections that would likely take the wind out of the sails of Tory campaigners. It would also avoid Tory embarrassment should flights to Rwanda not take off in the summer. One option is to bring the spring budget forward to February, introduce income and/or inheritance tax cuts. Giving the Tories a bounce into the election.
Guido’s also been told that the UK’s hosting of the next European Political Community conference in May will complicate scheduling. Yet a Halloween election is said to be unlikely, as it’s is deemed too close to the US elections in early November because this apparently is deemed, Guido kids you not, to risk leaving the free world leaderless. Better for Sunak to head to the polls early with vigour than close to the wire reluctantly…
However, some Downing Street sources say Issac Levido, Tory campaign manager, and No.10 Chief of Staff Liam Booth-Smith, are reluctant to hold an early election as Labour’s 20-point lead in the polls doesn’t look likely to drop in time as the economy goes sideways. Contrary to reports in the Sunday papers the City thinks mortgage rates have peaked – if you believe the yield curve. Still, last week Levido was confirmed to be stationed full time in Matthew Parker Street from 1st January…
UPDATE: Guido hears Sean Topham (one half of 2019’s digi-whizz kid agency Topham Guerin) is being spotted increasingly with Cass Horowitz at CCHQ.
