A YouGov poll commissioned by Sky News show the Tories are now losing more 2019 voters to Richard Tice’s Reform UK than to Labour: only 11% of 2019 Tory supporters are now backing Sir Keir, with 12% supporting Reform. Overall, just 40% said they still support the Conservatives.

The poll also shows Rishi Sunak is far more personally popular with undecided 2019 voters than Starmer. Rishi has a net positive rating of +7, while Sir Keir is in the dumps at -61. A small glimmer of hope for the Tories, maybe. It is still a mountain to climb…