The Tamworth by-election gave a whopping 23.9% swing to Labour last night. This seat was nearly as safe as they come for the Tories in 2019, with a 66.3% majority. They’d held it since 2010. In fact, here are twelve Cabinet Ministers who won a smaller majority in the 2019 election:

1. Rishi Sunak: 63% in Richmond (York).
2. Jeremy Hunt: 53.3% in South West Surrey.
3. Suella Braverman: 63% in Fareham.
4. Kemi Badenoch: 63% in Saffron Walden.
5. Grant Shapps: 52% in Welwyn Hatfield.
6. Oliver Dowden: 62% in Hertsmere.
7. Alex Chalk: 48% in Cheltenham.
8. Michael Gove: 58% in Surrey Heath.
9. Mark Harper: 59% in Forest of Dean.
10. Greg Hands: 49% in Chelsea and Fulham.
11. Gillian Keegan: 57% in Chichester.
12. Penny Mordaunt: 61% in Portsmouth North.

No seat is safe…
UPDATE: According to YouGov “Conservative voters think the government has the wrong leader by 46% to 36%, and the wrong policies by 53% to 29% (with 36% thinking both are wrong)

Compared to 2022, when Boris Johnson was still prime minister, Tory voters are 4 points less likely to say the government has the right leader, and 16 points less likely to say the government has the right policies.”