Inflation for the year to July 2023 was 6.8%, down from 7.9% the previous month. According to figures released today by the ONS, it marks the third consecutive month of a fall which brings inflation down to its lowest point since February of last year. The drop was in line with forecasts and mostly due to falling energy and gas prices – which came thanks to the lowering of the energy price cap in July last year – though food price rises also slowed. It’s not all good news, core CPI remains unchanged on last month, whilst services prices, watched closely by policymakers, increased to 7.4%. Their highest rate on record.

The figures will offer some reassurance to Rishi Sunak. To meet his target of halving inflation, CPI would need to fall to 5.3% by the end of the year. Although this is not a foregone conclusion, it now seems more achievable. Jeremy Hunt commented on the figures this morning:

“The decisive action we’ve taken to tackle inflation is working, and the rate now stands at its lowest level since February last year. While price rises are slowing, we’re not at the finish line. We must stick to our plan to halve inflation this year and get it back to 2%.”

They could do with a bit more “decisive action” to cut NHS waiting lists, stop the boats and reduce the national debt…